Preview - Scotland v South Africa

Scots are not easy meat for the Springboks

South Africa play Scotland at Murrayfield in Edinburgh. Three weeks ago it would have been regarded as the soft fixture on the Springbok tour to the UK, Ireland and Argentina. Now it is seen as an opportunity to save face.

Scotland will be no push-over - not at all. They have played the Wallabies twice in Caledonia stern and cold, and they were no push-over. They will not be easy meat for the Springboks either.

The Springboks are a mystery. Where have all the flowers gone? Where has all that smiling, adventurous confidence of the Tri-Nations gone? Then, even when they lost, there was something bright about it. Now even when they beat Wales, there was something gloomy and moody about what they did. The laughter has died - or being killed.

People have looked for reasons and found them all over the place - in climate, logistics, complacency and self-satisfaction, arrogance, conditioning, physical ability, educational maturity and politics. The Grand Slam tour was much touted - a fait accompli in South African minds.

Then came those wobbly last minutes against Wales and the humiliation of a push-over try. Then came the humiliation of Dublin and the greater humiliation of Twickenham.

If humiliation leads to humility, that is a good antidote for complacency. If it leads to a willingness to learn, then perhaps the players will get a more realistic gameplan and a willingness to do the menial tasks, such as cleaning out at tackle time.

If not, the doughty Scots, who emerged strong from their eligibility upsets with English clubs, will beat them, as they did when last the Springboks came to Edinburgh.

The Springboks have made lots of changes - seven in all. Justifying all the changes on rugby grounds is not convincing.

Left out is the persecuted genius of Schalk Burger. Also out is the fleet-footed genius of Brent Russell. In comes bulk and there is bulk on the bench. Perhaps this suggests a more conservative approach.

The Scots seem to think so as they have brought in the aggressive bulk of Jason White, perhaps looking to get their intimidation in first. An enforcer, he may be there to chew up the olive branch the 2004 Springboks have been waving on this tour.

With only one change, the Scots have the possibility of a more unified and so more confident entry into the match. Jaque Fourie, Wayne Julies and Solly Tyibilika have not played for over a month. Gcobani Bobo's last match was off the bench in the second half on 8 October. His only match before that was in the Lions' starting team on 7 August.

It's hard to see the Scots dominating at set pieces, though they should certainly hold their own, especially if they avoid throwing near Victor Matfield in the line-outs. If they avoid him there, he will be nullified, as he has little to do besides. But one can see the Scots playing with their usual zeal at the tackle, and winning that if the South Africans stand around idle waiting to be runners.

The way the halfbacks play will depend on how the forwards play. Parity there, and there is liable to be more boot from Fourie du Preez behind the Springbok pack and Dan Parks at outside half for Scotland, who will kick tactically much better than the Springboks who tend to hoof mindlessly. The other halves on each side are more inclined to run.

Beyond the halves, the Springboks look faster, especially if newcomer Bryan Habana gets a chance to run. But little has been created for the wings on either side, Japan apart.

The goal kicking of Chris Paterson and Percy Montgomery looks much of a muchness but the Scots may well have more penalty opportunities. Home sides usually do, and the Springboks have been too cavalier in their treatment of the game's regulations.

Players to Watch:

For Scotland: There is Ali Hogg - playing No.8 this week. He has strength and skill. He scored a runaway try from a charge-down against the Wallabies and came within an ace of a second when he grabbed a Cusiter grubber. He is a young man of skill and confidence. Then there is shortish, lively, committed Donnie MacFadyen who will do all he can to steal ball at the tackle.

For South Africa: There is Bryan Habana, who was for many the three quarter find of South African rugby in 2004. He has a skaters speed and an instinctive appreciation of a game situation and how to turn it to profit.

Head to Head: Chris Cusiter (Scotland) v Fourie du Preez (South Africa): Two young scrum-halves of differing abilities. From his first entering into international rugby Cusiter has impressed. He has a pass which is quick, long and accurate and a sharp break, as he showed twice against the Wallabies - a man with an eye for a half chance. Du Preez protects his fly-half by taking on responsibilities. He has a big right boot and is strong on his feet, but not as nimble as Cusiter and not happy if the pack is pressurised.

Prediction: Let's take firm grasp on the thistle/nettle/flower of Scotland and say South Africa will win.
Planet Rugby Prediction: South Africa by 10 points or more.
SportingOdss.com Prediction: South Africa by 10 points

Recent results:
2003: In Johannesburg: South Africa won 28-19
2003: In Durban: South Africa won 29-25
2002: In Edinburgh: Scotland won 21-6
1999: In Edinburgh: South Africa won 46-29
1998: In Edinburgh: South Africa won 35-10

Teams:

Scotland: 15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Chris Paterson, 13 Ben Hinshelwood, 12 Andy Henderson, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Chris Cusiter, 8 Allister Hogg, 7 Donnie MacFadyen, 6 Jason White, 5 Nathan Hines, 4 Stuart Grimes, 3 Gavin Kerr, 2 Gordon Bulloch, 1 Allan Jacobsen .
Replacements: 16 Robbie Russell, 17 Bruce Douglas, 18 S MacLeod, 19 Jon Petrie, 20 Mike Blair, 21 Gordon Ross, Graeme Morrison .

South Africa: 15 Percy Montgomery, 14 Jaque Fourie, 13 Marius Joubert, 12 Wayne Julies, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 Danie Rossouw, 6 Solly Tyibilika, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 Gürthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Danie Coetzee, 17 Os du Randt, 18 Gerrie Britz, 19 Jacques Cronjé, 20 Michael Claassens, 21 Gcobani Bobo, 22 Gaffie du Toit.

Date: 27 November 2004
Kick-off: 14.45 GMT (16.45 SA time)
Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Conditions: Overcast with a later chance of rain, a high of 10°C, dropping to 2°C and a wind of some 20 km/h
Referee: Nigel Williams (Wales)
Touch judges: Chris White (England), Eric Darrière (France)
Assessor: Colin High (England)
Television match official: Nigel Owens (Wales)

By Paul Dobson