Only one call to make

Japan must host the 2011 Rugby World Cup

So the hour is nearly upon us. At 16:00 GMT we will have an idea of which city to start dreaming about visiting. We will be able to look on the internet for a rough guide to the best flight prices and hotels. And the more corporate among us may even be hatching plans as to which conferences might be scheduled for which cities at convenient times of the year.

This afternoon in Dublin, the IRB will announce who is to host the 2011 Rugby World Cup - and there is more, much more, riding on this particular announcement than on its predecessors.

The IRB has a big decision to make. Two of the bidders are in the grand octet, but the third is an unknown quantity, a country whose most famous rugby achievement is losing to a record score in the first round.

Do they go outside the inner circle to Japan? Or do they play it safe and stick to South Africa or New Zealand? It is a tough choice.

The question for the IRB really is whether rugby has grown enough during the professional era to be able to sustain itself outside of the safety zone of the big eight.

It is a shame in many ways that the choice must be made before the 2007 tournament in France, for the current burgeoning of the game in France and the likely massive success of the French tournament would be much clearer indicators for the game's governing body than the current fog of figures being released from the various corners of rugby's scattered community.

One factor, of course, is money. The IRB needs revenue from things like World Cups to fund its operation in expanding the game to the rest of the world, an operation which is moving slowly, but, credit where credit is due, surely.

A tournament in Japan would not be a guaranteed success, because there is the danger that the public would lose interest. The Soccer World Cup of 2002 was a massive success, granted, but the hosts managed to surprise their way through to the last sixteen and semi-final respectively.

Soccer is a funny old game though, and things like that can happen. Rugby is more serious than that, and surprises of that nature are relatively few. South Africa and New Zealand can both boast teams that will be there or thereabouts come the final stages, and thereby count on a swell of local enthusiasm for that, even ignoring the fact that rugby is the national sport there. Should the showpiece matches in Japan flop because of the absence of the host nation, the IRB - and therefore the rugby world - will be counting the cost for years afterwards.

That is the risk to be taken, for on all other accounts, Japan is the choice to make. They have the best stadia - even if South Africa will have the new soccer arenas from 2010. They have a good rugby weather climate. They have a growing player base, and a team that plays its rare matches in the public eye with enterprise and enjoyment. The support in Japan for the game may be in a minority compared to other sports, but it is a minority full of an unquenchable and happy non-partisan enthusiasm which some supporters of bigger professional countries have sadly forgotten about. England, Scotland, and Australia's support for Rugby Union is also in a clear minority compared to other sports as well.

Given rugby's growth globally over the past twenty years, even a minority of support in Japan ought to be enough to sustain the tournament through its full course. The Japanese love both sport and an underdog, and when was the last time you saw a draw predicted in a rugby match? There is enough David v Goliath in rugby to satisfy that appetite, and it would be a refreshing change to watch the best play the best on the most neutral territory the earth can afford.

It is down to the organisers to ensure the local success of the tournament, but if ever there was a country to be trusted to do the job, and with a proven track record, it is Japan. The IRB need not worry.

The Japanese have an administration which could survive a flash swoop by the world's finest forensic accountants and political hacks, something which the nearest rival (if the general mutterings in the global press are to be believed) South Africa, absolutely cannot claim to do.

It would be a dreadful day for the game if the World Cup were awarded to a country with Brian van Rooyen in charge of it, for it would merely promote a man who attempted to sell corporate seats for a luxury car, who oversaw the process awarding of a Super 14 franchise which has spawned little but controversy and a government investigation, who lost the confidence of pretty much his entire rugby public long ago, and who hides behind curtain after curtain of red tape whenever the going gets tough.

The South African media campaign against him has switched off like a light over the past two months, but how long before the spotlight is back on after the announcement - irrespective of the decision?

New Zealand has a strong case on nostalgic grounds, and on the grounds of the most marketable rugby brand, but that is about as far as it goes. There is nothing unique about a national love of the game - South Africa has that as well - and the country is rapidly becoming too small to host a tournament of this magnitude.

Awarding the tournament to Japan represents a big and necessary step in the progress that the IRB is making in bringing the game to the rest of the world. Choosing South Africa or New Zealand would simply be marking time and not progressing at all, and would be dull for the game in the same way that the current annual saturation of international fixtures is dull - once they are here, they are great to watch, but we know what to expect. There is no long build-up of excited imagination.

The rugby public will spend six long years trying to envisage what a tournament in Japan would be like, and bursting with curiosity at something new to sample. There will be no more seeping staleness for the next six years.

The game in Asia has long occupied niche status - the Hong Kong sevens is the best example - and now is the time for that continent to make its transition to the mainstream, even if only by dint of the indelible memory of a fantastic Rugby World Cup.

By Danny Stephens