Celtic League preview - week seven

When top sides clash

All sport enjoys the clash of top sides - first against second. That is what we have in the Celtic League this week - the Ospreys against the Leinster at St Helen's down towards the sea at the Mumbles.

Leinster will make the journey across the Irish Sea in great hope as they enjoy a better Celtic League this year. Last year they finished eighth, but then the Ospreys, after a bad patch, were only fifth. This year both sides have started well, the Ospreys excellently.

The Ospreys have won every one of their six matches so far this year and have accumulated four bonus points. Leinster are eight points behind them in the table after drawing with Cardiff Blues in the first round, which was before the return of their internationals, and losing to the Dragons, who are two points behind the Irishmen with a match in hand.

OSPREYS v LEINSTER - 19.05* (Friday)

This top-of-the-table clash kicks off the Celtic weekend. Home ground always matters even if the Ospreys have made light of it this year and the visit to St Helen's could well prove the undoing of Leinster whom the Dragons slew 34-17 last time the side was over in Wales.

Results against common foe this season:

Cardiff: Leinster drew 9-9; Ospreys won 39-3
Ulster: Leinster won 26-15; Ospreys 37-24
Munster: Leinster won 17-15; Ospreys 34-17
The Borders: Leinster won 50-13; Ospreys 23-15

That may well suggest that the Ospreys have the edge. History plus home may well equal victory.

But history is there to be made, and the men from within the Pale may yet teach the Welsh a hard lesson. After all there is another bit of history which tells a story in Leinster's favour. They have been to St Helen's twice and won twice. Last season the teams met three times. Leinster won twice and there was a draw.

Which history will be made on Friday - recent or ancient?

"Leinster will provide a real test of how far we have developed as a squad," said Ospreys' manager Derwyn Jones

"We have performed well to date and are delighted to have won six out of six so far this season. Leinster have now had three weeks together since their internationals returned and they will give us a true test of where we are in preparing for the Heineken Cup.

"If there was any complacency in our squad they just need to look at the players they will face on Friday evening and it will shake any such thought from their minds.

"They have a talisman up front in Reggie Corrigan, great presence in the second row from Malcolm O'Kelly, and in Brian O'Driscoll they have one of the few world-class players in the British Isles."

The Ospreys are still without Stefan Terblanche (foot), Jonathan Thomas (ankle) and Shaun Connor (fractured fibular). Richie Pugh needs a fitness test.

The Ospreys have a settled look, Leinster do not.

After his brace of tries from the bench against Edinburgh last week, Denis Hickie comes onto the left-wing in the place of Shane Horgan. Guy Easterby is back at scrum-half and there are three changes in the pack as Ben Gissing, Ricky Nebbett and Shane Jennings while Des Dillon replaces Victor Costello who is being allowed a rest. Eric Miller is to undergo a fitness test.

There are some powerful names on the bench - Gordon D'Arcy, Gavin Hickie, Leo Cullen, Emmett Byrne and Brian O'Meara.

The rugby will not be the only fun of the St Helen's fair. The Welsh all-girl band Dragonheart will the there to get the spirits soaring!

But it could well be raining and the evening chilly - if you think that 6°C is only chilly.

Prediction: Leinster have got the names, but Ospreys have got the swagger. The latter side by 10 points.

The teams:

Ospreys squad: Adrian Durston, Richard Mustoe, Sonny Parker, David Bishop, Elvis Seveali'i, Shane Williams, Gavin Henson, Matthew Jones, Andy Williams, Jason Spice, Duncan Jones, Adam Jones, Andrew Millward, Paul James, Mefin Davies, Barry Williams (captain), Andy Newman, Lyndon Bateman, Brent Cockbain, Ryan Jones, Andy Lloyd, Richie Pugh, James Bater

Leinster: 15 Girvan Dempsey, 14 Gary Brown, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Felipe Contepomi, 11 Denis Hickie, 10 David Holwell, 9 Guy Easterby, 8 Des Dillon, 7 Shane Jennings, 6 Aidan McCullen, 5 Ben Gissing, 4 Malcolm O'Kelly, 3 Ricky Nebbett, 2 Shane Byrne, 1 Reggie Corrigan (captain).
Replacements: 16 Emmett Byrne, 17 Gavin Hickie, 18 Leo Cullen, 19 Eric Miller/Ciaran Potts, 20 Brian O'Meara, 21 Gordon D'Arcy, 22 Shane Horgan.

Referee: Rob Dickson (Scotland)
Touch judges: Clayton Thomas, Peter Rees (both Wales)
Assessor: Alun Richards

BORDERS v DRAGONS - 19.30 (Friday)

The Dragons have the chance to go second on the table. Victory would give The Borders chance to go a humble second from the bottom if Edinburgh get nothing from their game away to Connacht.

Home ground or not, it is hard to see the lowly Borders doing anything but losing, for the Dragons are breathing fire at present. They have won four in a row at the moment and have a match in hand over the second-placed Leinster who could well come unstuck against the Ospreys.

Results against common foe this season:

Llanelli: The Borders lost 26-15; Dragons won 15-0
Glasgow: The Borders lost 10-7; Dragons won 39-29
Leinster: The Borders lost 50-13; Dragons won 34-13.

That suggests that the Dragons are doing better, as indeed they are.

Good news for The Borders is that outstanding scrum-half Chris Cusiter, a rare find for the Scots in recent times, is down to play though he still needs to prove his fitness.

"We've given ourselves an option," said Borders coach Steve Bates. "It's a matter of how he reacts. But the decision will be up to Chris. Obviously if he does play it will be a massive psychological boost to us."

The back-up for Cusiter is Drew Moore, for last week's scrum-half, student Brendan McKerchar, is not available. Moore is a replacement scrum-half along with Johnny Weston.

New Zealand flank Wayne McEntee is having treatment to his knee and is replaced by Andy Miller.

The Dragons have delayed their squad to check the fitness of Hal Luscombe who is recovering from a shoulder injury and prop Chris Anthony. Both players look likely to play.

Their big setback has been the loss of star lock/loose forward Michael Owen because of a back injury suffered training with the Welsh squad. The duration of his unavailability is not known.

Dragons coach Chris Anderson is unhappy that Owen suffered the injury away from his environment. He said: "It's a blow for Michael. It's the last thing he needed now that he was getting some games under his belt."

Rain is expected on Friday night with a temperature a chilly 5°C.

Prediction: If they can win in Belfast, they can win in Galashiels. The Dragons to win by 10 or so.

The teams:

The Borders: 15 Stuart Moffat, 14 Jon Steel, 13 Calum MacRae, 12 Charlie Hore, 11 Nikki Walker, 10 Alistair Warnock, 9 Chris Cusiter, 8 Kelly Brown, 7 Andy Miller, 6 Scott Gray, 5 Mark Blair, 4 Scott MacLeod, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Paul Thomson (captain).
Replacements (from): Steve Scott, Geoff Cross, Matt Parr, Colin Stewart, Andy Rennick, Drew Moore, Johnny Weston, Stephen Cranston, Gareth Morton

Dragons: 15 Kevin Morgan, 14 Gareth Wyatt,  13 Percy Montgomery, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Nathan Brew/Haldane Luscombe, 10  Ceri Sweeney, 9 Gareth Cooper, 8 Jason Forster, 7 Jamie Ringer, 6 Richard Bryan, 5 Peter Sidoli, 4 Ian Gough,  3 Rhys Thomas, 2 Steve Jones, 1 Adam Black,
Replacements (from): Ben Breeze, Steve Winn, Gareth Baber, Rod Snow, James Richards, Chris Anthony, Luke Charteris, Ross Beattie.

Referee: George Clancy (Ireland)
Touch judges: Andy Ireland, John Ferns
Assessor: Douglas Kerr
 
CONNACHT v EDINBURGH - 14.30 (Saturday)

Funny team Connacht. They just scraped home against the lowly Borders and then went over to Wales and beat the Scarlets at Stradey Park. Connacht are fourth on the table after playing six matches, Edinburgh are second last after five, though they surely have the ability to improve - though it may not be this week.

Connacht have lost only once - a trouncing at the hands of the Blues. Edinburgh have won only once - when they trounced the Blues! Read into that what you want.

Results against common foe this season:

Ulster: Edinburgh lost 17-16; Connacht lost 19-13
Glasgow: Edinburgh lost 12-10; Connacht won 31-15
Llanelli: Edinburgh lost 37-16; Connacht won 29-21
Cardiff: Edinburgh won 35-16; Connacht lost 31-6

Darren Yapp and Matt Mostyn are back from injury to strengthen the Connacht side. Yapp will make his first start of the season, consigning James Downey to the bench.

David Slemen and Conor McPhillips are being rested after the great Llanelli win. Mostyn plays at fullback in Slemen's place, Niall O'Brien on the wing for McPhillips.

There is not change to the starting pack.

By the by, Saturday will mark 'Counties of Connacht jersey day'. Anyone wearing a county jersey of Mayo, Galway, Roscommon, Sligo or Leitrim will be admitted free to Saturdays game.

The teams:

Connacht: 15 Matt Mostyn, 14 Ted Robinson, 13 Darren Yapp, 12 Mark McHugh, 11 Niall O'Brien, 10 Paul Warwick, 9 Conor OLoughlin, 8 Mick Carroll, 7 Matt Lacey, 6 Michael Swift, 5 Pieter Myburgh, 4 Andrew Farley, 3 Stephen Knoop, 2 John Fogarty, Ray Hogan.
Replacements: 16 Bernard Jackman, 17 Adrian Clarke, 18 Christian Short, 19 John Muldoon, 20 Mike Walls, 21 Eric Elwood, 22 James Downey.

Edinburgh: 15 Derrick Lee, 14 Chris Paterson, 13 Marcus Di Rollo, 12 Craig Joiner, 11 Hugo Southwell, 10 Brendan Laney, 9 Rory Lawson, 8 Allister Hogg, 7 Simon Cross, 6 Todd Blackadder (captain), 5 Alastair Kellock, 4 Nathan Hines, 3 Craig Smith, 2 Dougie Hall, 1 Allan Jacobsen.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Kelly, 17Joel Brannigan, 18 Fergus Pringle, 19 Alasdair Strokosch, 20 Jamie Blackwood, 21 Phil Godman, 22 Simon Webster.

Referee: Hugh Watkins (Wales)

GLASGOW v ULSTER - 17:15 (Saturday)

Ulster must be hurting. They have had a rough time - three beatings at Ravenhill. They are the lowliest of the Irish sides. But Glasgow, the best of the Scottish sides, are worse off with four defeats.

Results against common foes this season:

Connacht: Glasgow lost 31-15; Ulster lost 19-13
Edinburgh: Glasgow won 12-10; Ulster won 17-16
Dragons: Glasgow lost 39-29; Ulster lost 28-21
Ospreys: Glasgow lost 40-17; Ulster lost 37-24

Glasgow have prop Euan Murray back from a back injury but Scott Barrow is still out with a shoulder injury. Otherwise the squad was the same as last week's plus Murray and David Millard, till Sean Lamont pulled out injured, leaving room for Andy Craig.

Ulster have made three changes from the side defeated by the Dragons last week. Ronan McCormack and Nigel Brady come into the front row with Gary Brown at No.8 for injured Roger Wilson.

Prediction: Let's say that Glasgow will be tenacious as the rain comes down. A home win by three points?

Glasgow: 15 Rory Kerr, 14 Kenny Logan, 13 Graeme Morrison, 12 Andrew Henderson, 11 Andy Craig, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Sam Pinder, 8 Jon Petrie (captain), 7 Donnie Macfadyen, 6 Cammy Mather, 5 Dan Turner, 4 Andy Hall, 3 Lee Harrison, 2 Gordon Bulloch, 1 Kevin Tkachuk.
Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Euan Murray, 18 Andrew Wilson, 19 John Beattie, 20 Graeme Beveridge, 21 Calvin Howarth, 22 David Millard.

Ulster: 15 Bryn Cunningham, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Kevin Maggs, 12 Paul Steinmetz, 11 Tyrone Howe, 10 David Humphreys (captain), 9 Kieran Campbell, 8 Gary Brown, 7 Neil Best, 6 Campbell Feather, 5 Matt McCullough, 4 Gary Longwell, 3 Simon Best, 2 Nigel Brady, 1 Ronan McCormack.
Replacements: 16 Paul Shields, 17 Rod Moore, 18 Rowan Frost, 19 Matt Mustchin, 20 Neil Doak, 21 Paddy Wallace, 22 Jonathan Bell

Referee: Nigel H Williams (Wales)
Touch judges: Ted Coutts, Jim Oswald
Assessor: Jim Fleming

MUNSTER v CARDIFF - 19.15 (Saturday)

On the results of the year there is nothing much to chose between the red men of Munster and the blue men of Cardiff. Both have two wins, a draw and two defeats from five matches. Munster are higher on the table (fifth to seventh) because they have three bonus points to the Blues' one.

Both are sides which, historically and on paper, would have expected to have done better.

Munster are bolstered by the return of Rob Henderson, Jim Williams and Paul O'Connell. That is a formidable trio.

In addition they are at home in passionate Thomond Park. Cardiff will not feel at home.

Cardiff have been resting after their bye but there are five changes to their side. And that side beat Edinburgh 35-16 at Murrayfield.

Craig Morgan moves from left-wing to fullback, Freddie Tuilagi switches wings from right-wing to left-wing with Jonny Vaughton on the right-wing. Rhys Williams comes in at outside centre where he has played before, two years ago last.

Robert Sidoli joins Craig Quinnell in a powerful second row with Nathan Thomas back at No.8.

Results this season against common foe:

Leinster: Cardiff drew 9-9; Munster lost 17-15
Ospreys: Cardiff lost 39-3; Munster lost 34-17
Connacht: Cardiff won 31-6; Munster drew 27-27

Prediction: Munster by ten as the Blues fade yet again.

Munster: 15 Christian Cullen, 14 John Kelly, 13 Shaun Payne, 12 Rob Henderson, 11 Anthony Horgan, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Peter Stringer, 8 Anthony Foley (captain), 7 Denis Leamy, 6 Jim Williams, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Trevor Hogan, 3 Jim Hayes, 2 Frankie Sheahan, 1 Marcus Horan,
Replacements: 16 Jerry Flannery, 17 Gordon McIlwham, 18 Tom Bowman, 19 Alan Quinlan, 20 Mike Prendergast, 21 Paul Burke, 22 Paul Devlin

Cardiff: 15 Craig Morgan, 14 Jonny Vaughton, 13 Rhys Williams, 12 Tom Shanklin, 11 Fereti Tuilagi, 10 Lee Thomas, 9 Dean Dewdney, 8 Kort Schubert, 7 Martyn Williams (captain), 6 Nathan Thomas, 5 Robert Sidoli, 4 Craig Quinnell, 3 Martin Jones, 2 Gareth Williams, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Lewis, 17 Rhys Thomas, 18 Deiniol Jones, 19 Nathan Budgett, 20 Richard Smith, 21 Nick Macleod, 22 Shaun James

Referee: David Changleng (Scotland)

* All kick-off times are local