Celtic League preview - week six

Ospreys set to fly higher

The Ospreys have built up a solid lead in the Celtic League and should be able to stretch it further when they fly north to take on The Borders, who are at the other end of the table from them. The Ospreys have not lost a match while The Borders have not won one.

The Ospreys have the most victories and the most bonus points in the League. They failed to score four tries only once - against the Scarlets at Stradey when they won 23-6. It looks like being the year of the Neath-Swansea coalition.

One of the most interesting appearances of the weekend is that of David Holwell, formerly of New Zealand, now of Dublin.

The closest matches of the weekend could well be those in Glasgow, Dublin and Belfast. That leaves the Scarlets expected to win at Stradey and the Ospreys to win in Scotland.

There are two matches on Friday this weekend, two on Saturday and the fifth on Sunday.

On Friday, Ulster play the Dragons and The Borders play the Ospreys. On Saturday, the Scarlets welcome Connacht and Glasgow play Munster. In Sunday's match Edinburgh go to Dublin to play the Leinster Lions.

The weather forecast for the weekend does not hold threats, with bits of cloud and a chance of rain in Ireland and Wales.

THE BORDERS v OSPREYS at Netherdale at 19.30* (Friday)

The Borders came close to winning against Connacht last weekend. That was over in Galway and The Borders were still ahead eight minutes into injury time when Eric Elwood goaled a penalty for the home team and gave them a one-point victory. Well as Connacht are doing so far, the Ospreys are a different kettle of fish, even if the Borders are at home in Galashiels. The last time the teams met in Scotland, The Borders won.

The Ospreys are also aware that when they lost that match last November they went on an unhappy run of five successive defeats. They say they believe that The Borders are a better side this year and will be taking no chances.

The Ospreys will be without Jonathan Thomas (ankle), Barry Williams (neck, but not serious), Stefan Terblanche (broken bone in foot), and Shaun Connor (fractured fibular), but Shane Williams (calf) and Sonny Parker (knee) passed late fitness tests.

The Borders have lost both scrum-halves to knee injuries - Chris Cusiter, who has been such a find for Scotland, and Johnny Weston. In comes Brendan McKerchar of Scotland Under-21 to the starting line-up with 31-year-old, thrice capped Iain Fairley on the bench. Neither replacement has practised with the team. It's a tough one for the student McKerchar, up against the perky, competitive, experienced All Black in Jason Spice.

McKerchar, a biology student at Durham University, told David Ferguson of The Scotsman: McKerchar admitted: "It is quite bizarre to look at the different situations of myself and Jason Spice, but Im looking forward to the game as its a chance for me to stake a claim for pro rugby when I finish my studies next year. But at the end of the day its not up to me. So Ive been keen to make sure Ive got my degree and not to throw all my eggs in one basket."

Scottish wing Simon Danielli who moved up over Hadrian's Wall from Roman Bath is yet to play for his new side as a hamstring keeps him side-lined.

Prediction: The Ospreys by more than 20 points.

The teams:

The Borders: 15 Stuart Moffat, 14 Jon Steel, 13 Calum MacRae, 12 Charlie Hore, 11 Nikki Walker, 10 Alistair Warnock, 9 Brendan McKerchar, 8 Kelly Brown, 7 Wayne McEntee, 6 Scott Gray, 5 Mark Blair , 4 Scott MacLeod, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Paul Thomson (captain).
Replacements: 16 Steve Scott, 17 Geoff Cross, 18 Colin Stewart, 19 Andy Miller, 20 Iain Fairley, 21 Stephen Cranston, 22 Gareth Morton.

Ospreys: 15 Adrian Durston, 14 Richard Mustoe, 13 David Bishop, 12 Sonny Parker, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Gavin Henson, 9 Jason Spice (captain), 8 Ryan Jones, 7 Richard Pugh, 6 James Bater, 5 Luke Tait, 4 Brent Cockbain, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Huw Bennett, 1 Duncan Jones.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Williams, 17 Matthew Jones, 18 Elvis Seveali'i, 19 Paul James, 20 Mefin Davies, 21 Andrew Newman, 22 Nathan Bonner-Evans.

Referee: David Keane (Ireland)
Touch judges: Ted Coutts, Alan Forrest (both Scotland)
Assessor: Jim Fleming

ULSTER v DRAGONS at Ravenhill 19:05  (Friday)

Ulster are on the rack. After years of invincibility at Ravenhill they have now lost two matches this season already and now the Dragons will be crossing the Irish sea breathing fire and success.

With a match in hand the Dragons are third, just behind the Leinster Lions while Ulster are in the bottom half, down there with Munster and the Scottish sides. Losing again would again be an unhappy experience for the side that once were champions of Europe.

The only common foe the two teams have had this season are the Leinster Lions. The Dragons beat them at home whereas Ulster lost to them at home.

The new Ulster coach Mark McCall (he took over from Alan Solomons who migrated to Northampton), has made five changes for the Celtic League match against the Dragons.

All Black Paul Steinmetz with his speed and experience, Kieran Campbell and Tyrone Howe - more speed and experience - come into the backs while Gary Longwell, back from a back injury for his first match this season, and Campbell Feather come into the pack. The Maggs-Steinmetz combination with Howe on the wing could clinch matters for Ulster.

Ulster have something of a leadership crisis. Captain Andy Ward, the Ireland flank, is out with injury. Neil McMillan was expected back as captain but he will be out for the whole season with torn anterior cruciate ligaments in his left knee.

By way of contrast the Dragons have got their captain back. Flank Jason Forster is back on the side. Jamie Ringer, son of Paul, switches to the blindside. Richie Bryan goes to No 8, Mike Owen to lock and Peter Sidoli to the bench

Haldane Luscombe is till out with a shoulder injury and there will be fitness tests to Chris Anthony, Richard Bryan, Ross Beattie and Jon Bryant.

Prediction: The Dragons by 3 points.

The teams:

Ulster: 15 Bryn Cunningham, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Paul Steinmetz, 12 Kevin Maggs, 11 Tyrone Howe, 10 David Humphreys (captain), 9 Kieran Campbell, 8 Roger Wilson, 7 Neil Best, 6 Campbell Feather, 5 Matt McCullough, 4 Gary Longwell, 3 Rod Moore, 2 Paul Shields, 1 Simon Best.
Replacements: 16 Nigel Brady, 17 Ronan McCormack, 18 Rowan Frost, 19 Matt Mustchin, 20 Neil Doak, 21 Paddy Wallace, 22 Jonathan Bell

Dragons: 15 Kevin Morgan, 14 Gareth Wyatt, 13 Percy Montgomery, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Nathan Brew, 10 Ceri Sweeney, 9 Gareth Cooper, 8 Richard Bryan, 7 Jason Forster (captain), 6 Jamie Ringer, 5 Michael Owen, 4 Ian Gough, 3 Rhys Thomas, 2 Steve Jones, 1 Rod Snow.
Replacements: 16 James Richards, 17 Adam Black, 18 Gethin Robinson, 19 Peter Sidoli, 20 Ross Beattie, 21 Steve Winn, 22 Gareth Baber.

Referee: Malcolm Changleng (Scotland)
Touch judges: Colin Stanley, Andrew Baird (both Ireland)
Assessor: Jim Irvine

GLASGOW v MUNSTER at Hughenden at 19.30 (Saturday)

You look at the Munster team and you wonder how on earth they ever lose a match in the Celtic League. Just look at their halves, their back row and their front row and wonder. And there is speed and strength elsewhere as well.

Yet they have disappointed often enough to make it quite possible for them to do it again when they head for Glasgow.

Glasgow have two wins in their five matches - both over Scottish sides, which does not really seem to count as much. Munster have only one win in their four matches, over the redoubtable Scarlets.

The only common foe the two teams have met are Connacht. Glasgow lost to them away while Munster drew with them at home.

Jon Petrie, the Scottish flank, will be back to lead his side against Munster after missing the Ospreys match because of flu. Also back are Graeme Morrison and Euan Murray, who has been struggling against a back injury.

Munster will be without two causalities from the hard victory over the Scarlets - Paul O'Connell (ribs) and Rob Henderson who has 14 stitches in a split lip. Australian Tom Bowman replaces O'Connell. Mike Mullins is at inside centre with James Storey outside of him.

John Kelly and Denis Leamy, whose replacement is experienced David Wallace, are being rested while South African Shaun Payne comes back from injury.

Prediction: Munster by ten points or more - unless Glasgow win by ten points or more!

Glasgow squad:

Backs: Scott Barrow, Graeme Beveridge, Andy Craig, Andrew Henderson, Calvin Howarth, Rory Kerr, Sean Lamont, Kenny Logan, Graeme Morrison, Dan Parks, Sam Pinder.

Forwards: John Beattie, Gordon Bulloch, Andy Hall, Lee Harrison, Andrew Kelly, Scott Lawson, Donnie Macfadyen, Cammy Mather, Euan Murray, Jon Petrie, Kevin Tkachuk, Dan Turner, Andrew Wilson.

Munster: 15 Christian Cullen, 14 Shaun Payne, 13 James Storey, 12 Mike Mullins, 11 Anthony Horgan, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Peter Stringer, 8 Anthony Foley (captain), 7 David Wallace, 6 Alan Quinlan, 5 Trevor Hogan, 4 Tom Bowman, 3 John Hayes, 2 Frank Sheahan, 1 Marcus Horan.
Replacements: 16 Jerry Flannery, 17 Gordon McIlwham, 18 Denis Leamy, 19 Stephen Keogh, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Paul Burke, 22 John Kelly.

Referee: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)
Touch judges: John Steele, Jim Yuille (both Scotland)
Assessor: Fergus Neil

LLANELLI SCARLETS v CONNACHT at Stradey Park at 17.30 (Saturday)

Connacht, the step children of Irish rugby, are a point ahead of the Scarlets on the table. They have 12 points from five matches, the Scarlets 11. They have both won twice but Connacht have a draw with Munster who beat the Scarlets.

Here they are at emotional Stradey park and if you bet against the Scarlets a flying saucepan may well knock some sense into you.

The Scarlets are champions. They have a West Walian fervour that is passionate about victory. But the Ospreys crossed the Loughar Bridge and did for them. They crossed the Irish Sea and lost a Limerick battle at Thomond Park. But surely you would expect them to beat Connacht.

For one thing Scott Quinnell, as Llanelli as they come, is back with his huge body and aura. Also back are Dwayne Peel, Chris Wyatt and Salesi Finau. Barry Davies' knee still keeps him out.

Connacht scraped home against The Borders in Galway but have made six changes to their team. The young South African prop, Stephen Knoop, formerly a Planet Rugby staff writer, starts at prop along with another new boy in Ray Hogan. Mike Swift and Mick Carroll come back from injury.

Mark McHugh of the trusty boot and Ted Robinson are back in the side with Paul Warwick moving to fly-half for veteran Eric Elwood, he who sounded The Borders' death knell with a penalty goal deep in injury time.

Connacht have usually given the Scarlets a good go. In fact they have beaten the Scarlets there and drawn with them, but really you would expect a home victory.

Prediction: Scarlets by between five and ten points.

The teams:

Scarlets: 15 Garran Evans, 14 Tal Selley, 13 Matthew Watkins, 12 Mark Taylor, 11 Salesi Finau, 10 Gareth Bowen, 9 Dwayne Peel, 8 Scott Quinnell, 7 Gavin Thomas, 6 Simon Easterby (captain), 5 Chris Wyatt, 4 Vernon Cooper, 3 John Davies, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Iestyn Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Phil John, 17 Craig Hawkins, 18 Adam Jones, 19 Dafydd Jones, 20 Andy Powell, 21 Arwel Thomas, 22 Mike Phillips.

Connacht: 15 David Slemen, 14 Ted Robinson, 13 Mark McHugh, 12 Conor McPhillips, 11 James Downey, 10 Paul Warwick, 9 Conor O'Loughlin, 8 Mick Carroll, 7 Matt Lacey, 6 Mike Swift, 5 Andrew Farley, 4 Piet Myburgh, 3 Stephen Knoop, 2 John Fogarty, 1 Ray Hogan.
Replacements: 16 Henry Bourke, 17 Adrian Clarke, 18 Christian Short, 19 John Muldoon, 20 Michel Walls, 21 Eric Elwood, 22 Chris Keane.

Referee: Andy Ireland (Scotland)
Touch judges: Huw F Lewis, Peter Soroka (both Wales)
Assessor: Jim Bailey

LEINSTER v EDINBURGH at Donnybrook at 17.15 (Sunday)

The Lions of Leinster are second from the top. The Gunners of Edinburgh are second from the bottom. Edinburgh are coming to Dublin. Despite the strengths in their personnel and the occasional great victory the big guns would seem to be within the Pale.

For one thing the Lions have one of the great icons of New Zealand's NPC in their firing line - David Holwell. It's a long, long way from Wellington to Donnybrook but the hearts of the Dubliners will go out to the no-nonsense Kiwi who has swapped Lions - the Wellington Lions for the Leinster Lions, from Super 12 to Celtic League.

The 29-year old has well over a hundred caps for Wellington for whom he first played in 1995 and more than 60 Super 12 caps. He has experience, know-how, initiative and reliability. And he will have a compatriot to introduce him to the Celtic League.

Guy Easterby, capped many times for Ireland, will sit on the bench while Brian O'Meara, who has also plays for Ireland, starts against Edinburgh.

Versatile Puma Felipe Contepomi switches from fly-half to inside centre where he and Brian O'Driscoll could provide the most effective centre-pairing in the Celtic League. Girvan Dempsey gets his first start for Leinster.

Back in the pack are Emmett Byrne, Leo Cullen and Aidan McCullen.

Leinster have yet to beat Edinburgh, odd as that may seem, in the Celtic League. History is there to be made!

Prediction: Leinster by more than 15 points

The teams:

Leinster: 15 Girvan Dempsey, 14 Shane Horgan, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Felipe Contepomi, 11 Brown, 10 David Holwell, 9 Brian O'Meara, 8 Victor Costello, 7 Eric Miller, 6 Aidan McCullen, 5 Leo Cullen, 4 Malcolm O'Kelly, 3 Emmet Byrne, 2 Shane Byrne, 1 Reggie Corrigan (captain).
Replacements: 16 Ricky Nebbett, 17 David Blaney, 18 Ben Gissing, 19 Shane Jennings, 20 Guy Easterby, 21 AN Other, 22 Dickie Hickie.

Edinburgh squad:

Backs: Mike Blair, Paul Boston, Phil Godman, Craig Joiner, Brendan Laney, Rory Lawson, Derrick Lee, Chris Paterson, Michael Pyke, Marcus Di Rollo, Hugo Southwell.

Forwards: Todd Blackadder (captain), Joel Brannigan, David Callam, Simon Cross, Dougie Hall, Nathan Hines, Allister Hogg, Allan Jacobsen, Andrew Kelly, Alastair Kellock, Fergus Pringle, Craig Smith, Alasdair Strokosc.

Referee: Nigel H Williams (Wales)
Touch judges: Marshall Kilgore, G Greer (both Ireland)
Assessor: Gordon Black

* All times are local