Preview - England v South Africa

An early Christmas gift?

As thoughts turn to the England versus South Africa match at Twickenham on Saturday, it seems that the Springboks' pre-Christmas duty is to trundle to Twickenham and give England the joyous present of victory, wrapped in tinsel with bells ringing and Swing Low as its proud carol.

It was not always so. There was a time, not so long ago, when the Springbok was feared and victorious.

Now the measure of Twickenham defeat increases annually. The early Christmas present was opened in 1998 when the margin of victory was six points. In 2000 - eight points, in 2001 - 20 points, and in 2002 a fat turkey of 50 points.

It surely will not increase again this year. Surely the reindeer with their laden sleigh will be reined in?

For one thing there is a change of personnel, the sides each have a new coach and new players.

England have lost many of the stern men who took them to glory, South Africa some of those who took them to ignominy.

These were the teams for the 50-point present:

England: J Robinson, BC Cohen, WJH Greenwood (TRG Stimpson), MJ Tindall, P Christophers, JP Wilkinson (AS Healey), MJS Dawson (ACT Gomarsall), RA Hill, NA Back, LW Moody (LBN Dallaglio), BJ Kay (DJ Grewcock), MO Johnson (captain), PJ Vickery, S Thompson, J Leonard.

South Africa: WW Greeff, BJ Paulse (RB Russell), RF Fleck, AD James, F Lombard, AS Pretorius (AA Jacobs), JH Conradie (N Jordaan), JC van Niekerk, PJ Wannenburg, CPJ Krige (captain), AJ Venter, JJ Labuschagne, PD Carstens (CJ van der Linde), J Dalton (L van Biljon), WG Roux.

There are not many survivors.

Jason Robinson, Will Greenwood, Ben Cohen, Andy Gomarsall, Lewis Moody, Danny Grewcock and Ben Kay, and Steve Thompson are back for England.

Breyton Paulse, Joe van Niekerk and AJ Venter for South Africa - eleven players out of 44.

Secondly, the post-World Cup period has not been a good time for England as they have lost to Ireland, France, New Zealand (twice) and Australia.

It has been a better time for the Springboks who are the Tri-Nations champions.

Having lost to the Triple Crown champions in Dublin, the tourists now face the world champions.

Both sides have reasons to want to play really well.

Since the World Cup, England's players have played Heineken Cup, Zurich Premiership and nine Tests.

South Africa's players have played Super 12, Currie Cup and ten Tests.

Throw travel into the equation and the Springboks have had a tougher time.

Throw Twickenham into the equation and England seem to have the better of the deal.

The English are unencumbered by outside pressures which could work to greater team spirit.

The Springboks are subject to increasing pressure from political groups who have their say in the election of office-bearers and the selection of teams, as race classification in South Africa - the cornerstone of apartheid's structures - gets reinvented.

Look at the teams.

The England pack is likely to be more cohesive, purposeful and, therefore, effective.

But the Springboks have the brightest star in the rugby firmament at present - Schalk Burger who can create and destroy with equal energy. Given the chance to play within the laws and given the protection of the laws, he could make a great difference at Twickenham on Saturday.

As the Irish "targetted" him, so too will the English. As the Irish drew the referee's attention to him, so too have the English.

The Springboks are likely to do better at line-outs, especially if Thompson cracks. England may just do better in the scrums, but not significantly.

That leaves the massive and vital battle zone - the post-tackle and driving maul situations, at both of which England may well be better.

Behind the packs, both sets of backs are able to snap up chances.

On last week's showing England do it better than the Springboks because they finish better. England have two mercurial players who can shatter defences in scrum-half Andy Gomarsall and fullback Jason Robinson with his speed, tricky feet and surprising strength.

Penalties?

South Africa are liable to be more penalised. Last week they conceded 13, England 8, but the match in Dublin was much more likely to produce penalties - conflict that it was.

Penalties lead to goal-kicking. If the Canada match is anything to go by Charlie Hodgson's goal-kicking needs target practice, but then of course he can come good and kick them over from afar. Percy Montgomery of the two-step run-up looks the steadier of the two kickers.

The teams seem well matched.

Players to watch: You will watch Schalk Burger (South Africa). You will not be able to avoid that ubiquitous blond mop. You will watch Jason Robinson (England), the bag of tricks. He is at the other end of the physical scale from Jonah Lomu, but like Burger, he has had a similar impact on rugby in his country. As the ball travels his way there is a frisson of excitement. Robinson and Burger are so good for rugby football if we want the game to have stars. There was one star at Bethlehem. There may well be two at Twickenham.

Head to Head: There are lots of man-to-man contests in this match, from Jason Robinson and Percy Montgomery, to Graham Rowntree and Eddie Andrews. There is a head-to-head in virtually every position. Let's start up front. Graham Rowntree (England) against Eddie Andrews (South Africa). Those two symbolise the struggle for front-row supremacy. If South Africa is to have good scrum ball with a nudge forward on the right so that Joe van Niekerk can pick up and run, Andrews has to give that impetus. He must overcome Rowntree. Likely? Unlikely. Charlie Hodgson (England) against Jaco van der Westhuyzen (South Africa). Both can run, both can surprise, both may be channels for opposing attackers. Hodgson has the better kicking game and is likely to send diagonal kicks soaring high for the wings - often England's weapon of choice, a spectacular weapon.

Recent results:
In 2003: England won 25-6 in Perth
In 2002: England won 53-3 at Twickenham
In 2001: England won 29-9 at Twickenham
In 2000: England won 25-17 at Twickenham
In 2000: England won 27-22 in Bloemfontein
In 2000: South Africa won 18-13 in Pretoria
In 1999: South Africa won 44-21 in Paris

Prediction: The pack and the boot will give England victory.
Planet Rugby Prediction: England by five points or so
SportingOdds.com Prediction: England by three points

The teams:

England: 15 Jason Robinson (captain), 14 Mark Cueto, 13 Mike Tindall, 12 Henry Paul, 11 Josh Lewsey, 10 Charlie Hodgson, 9 Andy Gomarsall, 8 Martin Corry, 6 Joe Worsley, 7 Lewis Moody, 5 Steve Borthwick, 4 Danny Grewcock, 3 Julian White, 2 Steve Thompson, 1 Graham Rowntree.
Replacements: 16 Andy Titterrell, 17 Andy Sheridan, 18 Ben Kay, 19 Andy Hazell, 20 Harry Ellis, 21 Will Greenwood, 22 Ben Cohen.

South Africa: 15 Percy Montgomery, 14 Breyton Paulse, 13 Marius Joubert, 12 De Wet Barry, 11 Jean de Villiers, 10 Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 AJ Venter, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Eddie Andrews, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 Os du Randt.
Replacements: 16 Hanyani Shimange, 17 CJ Van der Linde, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Gerrie Britz, 20 Michael Claassens, 21 Jaque Fourie, 22 Bryan Habana.

Date: 20 November 2004
Kick-off: 14.30 GMT (16.30 SA time)
Venue: Twickenham, London
Conditions: Scattered clouds with a high of 5°C and a wind from the north west reaching 10 km/h
Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)
Touch judges: Paul Honiss (New Zealand), Malcolm Changleng (Scotland)
Assessor: David Kerr (Scotland)
Television match official: David Changleng (Scotland)

By Paul Dobson