Preview - Wales v New Zealand

The return of the Dragon?

One would have thought that all the focus would be on the return of Graham Henry to the valleys this week, but that issue has been relegated to secondary importance behind the tide of optimism sweeping across the principality.

It has been one of the most enthusiastic build-ups to an international in Wales for a long time. The Millennium Stadium is sold out, the fans and players alike are falling over themselves with optimism, and countless murmurs abound of the Welsh being the underdogs no longer.

The Welsh coach is urging his players to 're-write history' (in case you have been living in a different universe this week, it is 51 years since Wales last beat the All Blacks).

Welsh captain Gareth Thomas has declared that Wales' time has come, and that they can shake off the tag of 'nearly men'.

There cannot be anybody left in the rugby fraternity who has not cast nostalgic thoughts back to the thrilling pool match at the Rugby World Cup, where Wales came within an ace of inflicting an upset on the tournament favourites.

In the same tournament, they outscored England by three tries to one in an equally thrilling quarter-final, and since then they have run England and France close, as well as the Springboks a fortnight ago. All the games were, however, lost.

No wonder the tag of 'nearly men' has stuck.

New Zealand have let Welsh optimism wash over them. Coaches Graham Henry and Steve Hansen have talked more about the Welsh players than their own, appraising their talents and talking up their threats.

Once the brief furore over their selection of a weakened New Zealand team (weakened? yeah right!) had died down, the major subjects under discussion in the All Black camp have been the debuts, particularly Casey Laulala's, and the captaincy of Richie McCaw.

The two teams are in very different phases. New Zealand are using this tour to lay down the blueprint for the next four years.

23-year-old McCaw is given his first captaincy, and none of the backs selected for the Wales game are over 26 years old. Henry's long-term first choice at fly-half, Dan Carter, is being given an extended run in the position.

Henry has gone on record as saying that Carter is the perhaps the only No.10 capable of making his controversial 'flat attack' work.

Wales already have an established team, which is now looking to fulfil its potential. The bulk of the side that played in the Rugby World Cup is still there, even if some members have dropped down to the bench and others have risen to the first team.

They have played some scintillating rugby at times over the last twelve months, but the niggling doubts remain over endurance, and tight five strength.

It is these factors which have ultimately cost them games such as those in the Rugby World Cup which they might have won.

The match against the Springboks a fortnight ago was noticeable in this respect. Wales were never going to win, but it has been a very long time since the Welsh were able to witness such a strong scrum in the final minute of a game. The fitness problem may finally have been solved.

It still doesn't quite dispel the doubt over the strength in the tight. The Springbok pack walked all over the Welsh one in the first part of that match, and Wales only really went into the ascendancy when the Boks themselves either rested on their laurels or, as in the final minute, were disrupted by multiple changes.

In the back row, Michael Owen has been the stand-out performer this year, be it at lock or at No.8. His strength and especially his height will be crucial in the face of a strong New Zealand line-out.

Colin Charvis and Dafydd Jones are both seasoned internationals in contention for Lions tour places. Jones especially is a very strong runner (ask Percy Montgomery), and could be the one to lead the forward charge.

The backs are full of well-balanced skills. The mercurial Gavin Henson worked well with Stephen Jones against South Africa, and Sonny Parker's defence and strong running has long been a very unsung positive in the Welsh team.

Shane Williams again gets the chance to pit his eye-crossing sidestep against the very best on one wing, while Tom Shanklin can show that he is more than just an impact player on the other.

Henry has a exceptional pack at his disposal. Greg Somerville and Tony Woodcock are both sturdy non-nonsense props, with the pace and flair of Keven Mealamu hooking in between them.

Chris Jack and Ali Williams are two locks who move around the park so much that they might be mistaken for flankers, and in the back row, the blend of McCaw's reliability, Rodney So'oialo's flair, and Mose Tuiali'i's strength is fearsome in the extreme.

The only question here is whether So'oialo will step up fully and reproduce his provincial form.

While the Welsh back five can match the All Blacks' on the day, the Kiwis have the upper hand in the front row by some distance.

Outside the scrum, the one weakness New Zealand might have is at scrum-half. Piri Weepu makes his debut on the back of unquestionable talent, but whether he is consistent enough to enjoy displaying that talent at this level is a moot point.

He faces Dwayne Peel, who was man-of-the-match against South Africa, and is enjoying his finest form to date.

But from jerseys ten through to fifteen, the All Blacks have what is unquestionably the best backline in the world.

Aaron Mauger is one of the world's most under-rated players. His playing relationship with Carter is akin to the Wilkinson-Catt axis for England which put paid to Wales in the Rugby World Cup.

Laulala's chance is long overdue after some excellent Super 12 performances, and the back three of Howlett, Rokocoko, and Muliaina... 70 tries in 86 tests between them speaks for itself.

So is the Welsh optimism well-founded? Sadly, no. It is all very well to finish two points behind the Springboks, but South Africa were twice nearly twenty points in the lead during the match, and when they stepped up a gear, Wales just didn't have the firepower to answer.

The Welsh played some excellent running rugby, and the defence was fabulous at times, but it does not compensate for the fact that they do not have the beef and belligerence in the set pieces and the final stages to win a game like this one.

New Zealand have the most talented team in the world. It is not the best in the world yet, but if Henry is right, and Carter is the man to set the backs flowing, the All Blacks will capitalise on their forward superiority in Cardiff.

Both teams have set their stall out to attack and spin the ball wide. Both teams have the backs to damage the other. All rugby fans can lick their lips and anticipate another thriller, but the result ought to be the same as last year.

Players to watch:

Wales: In a team frequently referred to as 'nearly men', Tom Shanklin has been a 'nearly man' within the team for some time now. His talent is unquestionable, as he showed with his four tries last Friday, and in the frequent appearances he has made from the bench, he has rarely failed to make a significant impact, irrespective of which position he has been asked to fill. Up to now, Shanklin has never quite managed to reproduce his 'supersub' form for all 80 minutes of a senior Test match yet but it must surely only be a matter of time...

New Zealand: Still only 24-years-old, Aaron Mauger has been on the fringes of the New Zealand team for a long time, and has rarely let himself down when called upon. He has shown time and time again that he can find a gap and blaze through it, at any level. His distribution and timing thereof are world-class, and he is an able kicker both from hand and tee, which will provide a reassuring presence to provincial team-mate Dan Carter at fly-half. With Carter moving into the No.10 slot from inside centre, Mauger's gap in the team has arrived. Expect him to blaze through this one as well.

Head to head: Shane Williams (Wales) v Doug Howlett (New Zealand): The elusive Welsh wizard possesses a sidestep and turn of pace off the mark which leaves the armchair viewer looking into the thin air beside the television. Howlett too can leave watchers with cricked necks as he changes direction. The phrase 'head-to-head' is also quite appropriate here, as two of the game's most flamboyant haircuts are up against each other.

Prediction: New Zealand to come away with a win over Wales - yet again.
Planet Rugby Prediction: New Zealand by 15 points
sportingodds.com prediction: New Zealand by 11-20 points

Recent results:

In 2003: New Zealand won 53-37 in Sydney (RWC) 
In 2003: New Zealand won 55-3 in Hamilton
In 2002: New Zealand won 43-17 in Cardiff 
In 1997: New Zealand won 42-7 in London (Wembley Stadium) 
In 1995: New Zealand won 34-9 in Johannesburg (RWC)
In 1989: New Zealand won 34-9 in Cardiff
In 1988: New Zealand won 54-9 in Auckland 
In 1988: New Zealand won 52-3 in Christchurch
In 1987: New Zealand won 49-6 in Brisbane (RWC)

The teams:

Wales: 15 Gareth Thomas (Toulouse, captain), 14 Tom Shanklin (Cardiff), 13 Sonny Parker (Neath-Swansea), 12 Gavin Henson (Neath-Swansea), 11 Shane Williams (Neath-Swansea), 10 Stephen Jones (Clermont Auvergne), 9 Dwayne Peel (Llanelli), 8 Michael Owen (Newport Gwent), 7 Colin Charvis (Newcastle), 6 Dafydd Jones (Llanelli), 5 Gareth Llewellyn (Narbonne), 4 Brent Cockbain (Neath-Swansea), 3 Adam Jones (Neath-Swansea), 2 Mefin Davies (Neath-Swansea), 1 Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff).
Replacements: 16 Steven Jones (Newport Gwent), 17 Duncan Jones (Neath-Swansea), 18 Ryan Jones (Neath-Swansea), 19 Martyn Williams (Cardiff), 20 Gareth Cooper (Newport Gwent), 21 Ceri Sweeney (Newport Gwent), 22 Rhys Williams (Cardiff)

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina (Blues), 14 Doug Howlett (Blues), 13 Casey Laulala (Crusaders), 12 Aaron Mauger (Crusaders), 11 Joe Rokocoko (Blues), 10 Daniel Carter (Crusaders), 9 Piri Weepu (Hurricanes), 8 Mose Tuiali'i, 7 Richie McCaw (Crusaders, captain), 6 Rodney So'oialo (Hurricanes), 5 Ali Williams (Blues), 4 Chris Jack (Crusaders), 3 Greg Somerville (Crusaders), 2 Keven Mealamu (Blues), 1 Tony Woodcock (Blues).
Replacements: 16 Anton Oliver (Highlanders), 17 Carl Hayman (Highlanders), 18 Reuben Thorne (Crusaders), 19 Marty Holah (Chiefs), 20 Byron Kelleher (Chiefs), 21 Ma'a Nonu (Hurricanes), 22 Rico Gear (Crusaders).

Date: Saturday, November 20
Kick-off: 17.30 GMT
Venue: Millenium Stadium, Cardiff
Conditions: Bright, clear - max 7°C, min 4°C
Referee: Tony Spreadbury (England)
Touch judges: Chris White (England), Roy Maybank (England)
Assessor: Tom Aplin (Ireland)
Television match official: Rob Dickson (Scotland)

By Danny Stephens