Time for the questions to be answered

Tuesday March 23 2004

The Sunday Times' Stephen Jones looks ahead to Saturday's Six Nations finale between France and England in Paris - game that could be decided by French fly-half Frédéric Michalak or some underperforming Englishmen.

The RBS Six Nations reaches a climax on what the marketing people are calling Super Saturday with the Wales-Italy and Ireland-Scotland matches preceding the championship decider at the Stade de France.

Too late, chaps, every match should have taken place on Saturday and none at the utterly nonsensical time of 21.00, when proceedings begin in Paris. Don't patronise everyone by making a big thing of a kick-off day which should have been used for every game

But is England's championship challenge too late? Can they find their true form in Paris? The praise for England's strong performance in the final quarter against Wales and the praise for the resistance of a clever but hopelessly underpowered Wales, has not hid the grave concern held in some quarters that the momentum of the world champions is slowing alarmingly.

There has been stick flying in some quarters about a team which has, allegedly, spent too long in dinner suites and champagne receptions and lost hunger. That may, not may not be true but it is undeniable that there are a whole raft of players who are below their true form - among them I would say that Will Greenwood, Ben Cohen (despite his two tries against Wales), Matt Dawson, Trevor Woodward, Steve Thompson, Phil Vickery, Ben Kay and Richard Hill are significantly, though not drastically, off form.

How much is due to the lure of the champagne and canapés is hard to estimate but with due respect to the Irish, the France-England game is the one that has really interested England deep down, and we must see England fail badly in Paris before we assume that they have really lost all momentum and that they will be sitting ducks in New Zealand and Australia in the Summer. The goad of a mighty French challenge would well see a whole heap of misfiring English back at a peak.

England are far from the only team to have played the Six Nations at only three-quarter pace. France have rarely been hitting their straps. Against Scotland, they occasionally meandered but when they switched on, they were electric. The strengths are obvious - they have easily the best scrum in the Six Nations and it therefore follows that they have the best scrum in the world. Sylvain Marconnet, their loosehead, is so far ahead of the other looseheads props in the sport at the moment that comparisons are silly.

They have a superb line-out, provided Imanol Harinordoquy is fit to resume after missing Murrayfield and they have a brilliant centre combination. Watching Damien Traille and Yannick Jauzion cut up Scotland with brilliant skills was a throwback to the days when sleight of hand and subtle change of running line killed defence. But not too many of a throwback - both are massive and physical, as well as dextrous and not the least of the weapons in Traille's formidable armoury is a siege-gun boot for tactical kicking.

The weaker areas are not difficult to discern. Jean-Baptiste Elissalde, the scrum-half, was arguably the best new face in the tournament but the injury which ruled him out of the last two games could be significant. Dimitri Yachvili, the replacement, is nothing like as sharp or talented.

And so, perhaps with a patchy service, the destiny of the 2004 RBS Six Nations crown probably lies in the heads and feet, and also in the head, of one player - Frédéric Michalak. It has been said so many times, but Michalak is a fantastic talent, trusted by his club coach and his national coach to pop back and forth between scrum-half and fly-half. He is intuitive, clever and elusive.

But before he departed to rest a minor injury, we saw the best and the worst of him, just as we saw the best and worst in Australia during the World Cup (read Stephen's column on that RWC semi-final). We saw the odd break, the confidence, but we also saw errors and we also saw him try too much on his own, we saw him take a bite of the cherry before passing it on.

It is a weakness, a lack of harmony with the team, which could well disappear and he grows older and gains the wisdom of experience. But I have no doubt whatsoever that until that day dawns, France will occasionally be vulnerable. I also have no doubt that England will target Michalak - and Yachvili - unmercifully.

In the phoney war period before the match we will hear from both camps that they are unconcerned with the ramifications of points difference. To take the championship, England would have to win the match and do so by a margin of eight points or more. France need a win or a draw but they still take the title if they lose but by a margin of seven points or less.

I am certain that both teams would be desperate to ensure victory rather than to worry about projections of points-difference. If you told Clive Woodward before the game that he could have a win but not by the required eight point margin, I am sure that he would take it. He did say, however, that if England lead by six points with a few minutes remaining, and are awarded a kickable penalty, then it is rather likely that England will take the shot.

It is incredibly hard to call. My view is that provided Harinordoquy is fit (he was named in the team) and provided that Michalak plays for the team, then France could just sneak it. If England have the powerful motivation of defending their European crown then France have a great goad - that of wiping away some of the memory of their dreadful performance in the semi-final of the Rugby World Cup.

It is also conceivable that we could have something of an anti-climax for all neutrals and even for some Englishmen and women, that England win the match but France take the title.

But whatever happens, we will find out on Saturday night whether or not this England team reached a peak in Australia and are now playing on the slippery slope.

* Note from the Editor: Stephen Jones, the Sunday Times' rugby correspondent and a Planet Rugby columnist, was named as Britain's Sports Writer of the Year at the British Sports Journalism Awards Dinner in London's Portman Square earlier this month.

The awards, sponsored by UK Sport and Laureus, and organised by the Sports Journalists' Association, attracted a high quality of entries from the cream of the nation's sports writers and photographers.