A bitterly hard hour and a half

The Sunday Times' Stephen Jones on the big one in Perth this Saturday - South Africa v England - the pool clash of the 2003 Rugby World Cup.

So two of the great rugby nations approach vanishing point at Subiaco Oval on Saturday. Consider just one of the myriad of advantages given to the winner of the England-South Africa match. They will almost certainly play Wales or Italy in the quarter-final. The losers play the All Blacks. At a rough guess, a 60-point different between two possible opponents. That is just for starters.

What did we learn from the opening games played by the two giants? I suppose that it is advantage England, just. They scored more points against Georgia than did South Africa against Uruguay, and this despite the fact that torrential rain had softened the going. England, while nowhere near perfect, made less errors.

And as  Clive Woodward pointed out, England's opposition appeared to be of higher quality. The indomitable Georgians seemed to keep their shape longer and better than did the brave Uruguayans and it would be very surprising, if not impossible, that Uruguay would beat the Georgians in what should be a terrific contest. Georgians were rightly proud of themselves after the match and Woodward and Martin Johnson spoke feelingly of the effort that England had to put in.

It was a nice and yet necessary touch when the England team stood and waited at the tunnel entrance as the Georgians did a lap of honour, so that they could congratulate this team impoverished in terms of resources but not in terms of passion.

However, none of this amounts to a hill of beans in the context on Saturday. South Africa know that all their recent problems will be forgotten if they win this one game and that is a motivation to be feared by an English supporter. The incoherent selection policy which has not seen them field the same team in consecutive matches since the World Cup of 1999; the half-wit who attacked that fine referee, David McHugh; the violence which they have definitely perpetrated, the allegations of racism, the whole lot  - all could be forgotten in one passionate afternoon. That nice Mr Straeuli could go from zero to hero.

What impressed me about South Africa against Uruguay was the pace and conviction with which they went about things. Not since the era of Nick Mallett have the Springboks played with clarity in their gameplan, but considering this is a team in its formative stages they gelled well. Their back row was very upright, but the return of Corné Krige will give them a low-level battler alongside Joe van Niekerk and Juan Smith and while their front five did not appear to have so much sheer footballing ability as their English counterparts, they then have a nice combination of grunt, and energy in the loose. Richard Bands, in outward appearance, is an old-time farming-stock Bokke prop, but defences do have a habit of opening in front of him as he thunders on his way. Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield are willowy enough and dextrous enough to pose a threat to the England ball in the line-out.

On the other hand, England will have noted that the heroic Uruguayan scrum, shored up by the individual performance of the tournament to date from Pablo Lemoine, the tighthead prop, was never subdued by the Springboks; and also that Louis Koen, the fly-half, was again below true Test-class level. Unless Koen has kept something secret, the gap in terms of individual ability and generalship between he and Jonny Wilkinson will be cavernous. Joost van der Westhuizen took advantage of some schoolboy defending by the Uruguayans to score three tries though if the service is not what it used to be then at least he is a player to keep the defence interested.

There is, quite obviously, the potential for conflict. Much has been made of the handshakes between Woodward, Straeuli, Krige and others at the pre-tournament capping ceremony but the rapprochement will be skin deep. Peter Marshall, the referee, is simply not rated in the camps of the European teams in this tournament and he will have to show more sympathy and less rasping Aussie vocal clap-trap to keep order. You do feel that it is highly-likely that there will be an aftermath to the action in terms of the employment of the citing commissioner and the disciplinary officer. Maybe, in what will be a fantastic contest with shuddering hits and massive tensions, the team that keeps the coolest collective head will win.

England should just about do it. I have never shared much of the rampaging optimism which has swept England ever since they thrashed the Springboks by 50 in the English winter of 2002. The impetus of the draw, and of impending humiliation, can make up for so many Springbok weaknesses. It could even be that if England do win and do motor on to take the title itself, then events at Subiaco on Saturday will be seen as their hardest hour-and-a-half. In a week of major margins, it is hard to see this as anything other than a narrow squeak.