Preview: Wales v Australia

Australia's careering year comes to an end on Saturday when they head to Cardiff to take on a confident Wales team.

The newspapers in Australia have been full of it all week. Full of the shame, full of the non-commitment of the players, full of the shallowness of top quality Australian rugby players, full of the punitive measures - financial and physical - the ARU should pile onto their team for such a woeful lack of international-level rugby.

It makes good press and it sells newspapers and advertising. But how much substance is there really to it?

Looking back at Australia's fixture calendar for this year would be enough to make anyone cringe in terror. Two (comparatively) easy home fixtures to Italy were followed by a French side that had conquered Dunedin, New Zealand and South Africa twice, England, Ireland, Scotland and now Wales. That is as tough a set of fixtures as you could ask for.

No, Australia have not won much, but rarely have they been trounced either. Only once, in Wellington, did the team comprehensively let itself down. The disaster in Scotland really was just one of those days. They really do happen.

That is easy for myself as a neutral to write of course, but outside of Wallaby walls there is a measure of sympathy for this team. It plays good rugby, it scores tries. It has held leads in many a match. It does not display the awful one-dimensionality of, say, England, nor does it moan about refereeing decisions like, say, lots of others. It is still relatively young and the average age of the starting XV has got younger as the year has rolled on.

A huge number of the side that will take to the field on Saturday will be around for the next two World Cups potentially, not just the New Zealand episode. That's a similar timescale to the one Sir Clive Woodward had - remember Dad's Army, as it was known by the onset of 2003? They didn't win all that much initially either, certainly not against the best in the world.

It is absolutely vital for this side that Australian rugby as a whole does not seek immediate results or quick fixes and remembers that Rome was not built in a day. Time is on this team's side in abundance and the Australian rugby calendar virtually guarantees no premature player burnout. It is no coincidence that more Test centurions come from Australia than any other country.

Back this talented team, back the core of its coaching staff, be patient. Regardless of what happens here. Let it fight its own battles on the field, let it put its own pressure on itself. It will come good.

Wales face a similar quandary although there is less pressure. Warren Gatland is enjoying a bit of a comfort zone in many ways, with an almost statutory close call against New Zealand, a comfortable win over Argentina and a scrappy win over Samoa with an experimental team under its belt. All decent results, no major burgeoning problems to deal with.

Whatever Wales are or are not doing, they are doing it much better than England, which counts for a lot, and there have been plenty of positives with regard to new playing talent coming through - enough that Tom Shanklin now seems not even to be as indispensible as he once was. Nor, for that matter, Stephen Jones. James Hook has found a new lease of life at full-back.

But there have been frustrations too. Wales have threatened to cut loose many a time, but have not quite found the cutting edge. Shane Williams' brilliance provided the spark - and light relief - against the Pumas, but that was not the team brilliance that the coaches would like to see, not the line-breaking, overlap-creating build of pressure. Against Samoa, the decision-making was frequently awry while against New Zealand there were too many limitations.

The Welsh undoubtedly have a good foundation and some of the handling skills have been silky, but there's been an overall tendency towards lateral movement outside the forwards and a lack of finesse in critical moments. Slowly, the impression has moved away from this being a team building, rather it is a team beginning almost to under-perform.

So frustrations on both sides. A desire on both sides to make this game a defining one of the series, coupled with a match of styles that tends towards the open. Games between these two down recent years have been pulsating affairs and this ought to be no different.

Ones to watch:

For Wales: James Hook has been a revelation in the absence of Lee Byrne and has comprehensively added another string to his bow. We'll see what kind of effect that has on his prospects when the Six Nations comes around, but for now, watch how well he times a run and how easy he makes finding a gap look on a counter attack. Australia should beware sloppy high balls.

For Australia: Matt Giteau is one of the finest players of this generation who has finally suffered a shocker against Scotland. It is difficult to gauge how much of Australia's hope relies upon his bouncing back from the aberration of Edinburgh, other than to say it is a lot.

Head to head: David Pocock v Martyn Williams. In an open game, opensides will invariably be to the fore. Martyn Williams rarely needs building up, but on the other side is a player who stole Man of the match honours in Dublin a fortnight ago and who is keeping George Smith out of the side. This will be a fascinating contest.

Recent results:

1999 Australia won 24-9 at the Millennium Stadium (RWC)
2001 Australia won 21-13 at the Millennium Stadium
2003 Australia won 30-10 in Sydney
2005 Wales won 24-22 at the Millennium Stadium
2006 match drawn 29-29 at the Millennium Stadium
2007 Australia won 29-23 in Sydney
2007 Australia won 31-0 in Brisbane
2007 Australia won 32-20 at the Millennium Stadium
2008 Wales won 21-18 at the Millennium Stadium

Prediction: Wales to win a tight one by three.

The teams:

Wales: 15 James Hook, 14 Leigh Halfpenny, 13 Jamie Roberts, 12 Jonathan Davies, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Dwayne Peel, 8 Ryan Jones (c), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Andy Powell, 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Alun-Wyn Jones ,3 Paul James, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 Duncan Jones, 18 Jonathan Thomas, 19 Dan Lydiate, 20 Martin Roberts, 21 Andrew Bishop, 22 Tom James.

Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Peter Hynes, 13 Digby Ioane, 12 Quade Cooper, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom (c), 5 Dean Mumm, 4 James Horwill, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota Nau, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Mark Chisholm, 19 George Smith, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 James O'Connor, 22 Kurtley Beale

Date: Saturday, November 28
Venue: Millennium Stadium
Kick-off: 17:15 GMT
Weather: The roof will be closed
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), Peter Allan (Scotland)
Television match officials: Geoff Warren (England)
Assessor: Patrick Robin (France)

By Danny Stephens