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- Muir backs Habana to come good
- Mitchell on a wing and prayer
Australia get a second bite at the cherry in ending their Highveld hoodoo when they tackle South Africa in Bloemfontein on Saturday, with the tournament wooden spoon still very much on the line.
The visitors currently sit last on the Tri-Nations table but have a game in hand over the second-placed Springboks, who ran them down to win 44-31 last weekend at Loftus Versfeld.
In a match in which tackles were missed rather than made, the embattled Springboks ground their noses over the finish line ahead of a Wallaby team short of finesse. The result also kept Australia's abysmal record at altitude (they have not won in 47 years) intact.
They could and should have won their last outing and now face South Africa for the second time in a week at altitude, however last week's Loftus experience will hold Australia in good stead for Saturday.
A week is a long time in Test rugby to make the wrongs right, and whilst the Springboks will probably be better at Vodacom Park, so will the Wallabies - especially if they manage to hang on to the ball.
Both of Australia's set pieces didn't perform in the way they wanted to, with the line-outs particularly in need of some urgent attention this week. Twice in the final quarter, Australia put the ball deep into Springbok territory just a few yards from their line. But Victor Matfield and company performed admirably to steal two crucial Wallaby throw-ins and ruin those attacking platforms.
That the Wallabies only managed to score three points in the second half after running up a 21-7 lead in the opening fifteen minutes must also be a worry for coach Robbie Deans, whose side lacked the composure and authority to finish the Boks off.
But this Aussie bunch are far from the finished article when you think of the number of key players missing.
Ben Alexander, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Wycliff Palu, Digby Ioane and James Horwill - all first-choice players, all injured. The Australians have been pretty competitive but without being full strength which has got to be a positive heading into this clash.
On the other end of the scale, you've got a full-strength Springbok side who are clearly not the team they used to be a year out from their World Cup defence and alarm bells are ringing loudly in the Republic.
A captain that's clearly over the hill, a coach that continues to cause controversy and players playing that shouldn't be - either through a bad patch of form or fatigue - spells trouble a year out from rugby's biggest event and they ain't got much time to get it fixed.
John Smit - one of the true leaders of the game - must surely realise what's best for the team he's served so valiantly and step aside for younger, fresher legs. Arguably, nobody can ever match his leadership skills but there are a few hookers out there that can do everything else a lot better. His play at the set pieces has been uncharacteristically patchy, while Smit's contribution in open play has been negligible.
Chiliboy Ralepelle can feel deeply hard done by at not starting this weekend. Smit's understudy put in a commanding performance off the bench last week but one feels it was his captain's under-par performance that made Ralepelle look even better.
Gio Aplon is another player that won't be happy warming pine in Bloem. It was obvious Francois Steyn left his game behind in France and never raised his game to the dizzy heights one has come to expect. But perhaps with the cobwebs now dusted off, Steyn can still prove he was worth all the fuss.
And then there's Peter de Villiers. Last week, the Springbok victory earned their under-fire coach a reprieve but his three-year reign could come to a premature end following his latest controversial remarks regarding accused murderer and Bulls prop Bees Roux.
It seems this is the final straw for his SARU bosses, and if reports are correct, the country's first black coach could be out of a job on Sunday - whether the Boks win or lose. If so, the search will be on for South Africa's eleventh Bok coach since they were readmitted to international rugby in 1992.
Of course this is just another typical sideshow distraction the Boks can do without. And with South Africa's captain, coach and a certain players' futures on the line - the battle in Bloemfontein is shaping up to be the best chance for the Wallabies to pounce.
Ones to watch:
For South Africa: All eyes will be on superstar winger Bryan Habana on Saturday, and for all the wrong reasons. The former World Player of the Year is under fire over his form slide and was under pressure to hold his spot for this Bloemfontein encounter following a rather dismal outing last week. Habana has scored just eight tries in 29 Tests since coach Peter de Villiers took over, compared to 30 in 36 pre-2008. With the in-form Gio Aplon and promising Griquas flyer Bjorn Basson waiting in the wings - Habana knows it's time to deliver or else...
For Australia: A first start for number eight Ben McCalman - who has done well coming off the bench in both matches the Aussies have played against South Africa this season - has signalled the Wallabies' intentions to get more physical with their hosts. Not much is known of the Western Force player, who only played his first season of Super Rugby this year. But coach Robbie Deans believes he can bring the ball carrying ability he likes in a number eight and which has been known to hurt the Boks in the past.
Head to head: Victor Matfield and Danie Rossouw v Nathan Sharpe and Mark Chisholm. The Australian line-out folded in Pretoria, giving up potent attacking opportunities thanks to four steals off their own throw. But Nathan Sharpe expressed his confidence earlier this week that they could match the Springbok line-out, spearheaded by Matfield, in Bloemfontein. The perception of many South Africans was that it was South Africa's line-out that made the difference in last week's win in Pretoria, and if the Wallabies can't remedy this set piece - it could be the same case again.
Previous results:
2010: South Africa won 44-31 in Pretoria
2010: Australia won 30-13 in Brisbane
2009: Australia won 21-6 in Brisbane
2009: South Africa won 32-25 in Perth
2009: South Africa won 29-17 in Cape Town
2008: South Africa won 53-8 in Johannesburg
2008: Australia won 27-15 in Durban
2008: Australia won 16-9 in Perth
2007: Australia won 25-17 in Sydney
2007: South Africa won 22-19 in Cape Town
2006: South Africa won 24-16 in Johannesburg
2006: Australia won 20-18 in Sydney
Prediction: Having come so close last week, the Wallabies will be itching for another crack at South Africa and we believe the holy grail of a win at altitude is achievable in Bloemfontein this weekend. Australia to win by three!
The teams:
South Africa: 15 Francois Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Ricky Januarie , 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Gio Aplon.
Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 James O'Connor, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom (c), 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Mark Chisholm, 3 Salesi Ma'afu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga'a, 17 James Slipper, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Richard Brown, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Berrick Barnes, 22 Anthony Fainga'a.
Date: Saturday, September 4
Venue: Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein
Kick-off: 17:00 (15:00 GMT)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), Simon McDowell (Ireland)
Television match official: Johann Meuwesen (South Africa)
Assessor: Steve Hilditch (Ireland)
By Dave Morris
Comments
justice_4_all says...
Well done Oz!!!! An historic win! Trinats, send the socks...I'll eat them with Mrs Balls Extra Sterk Blatjung.
Posted 17:56 04th September 2010
Trinats says...
justice_4_all:
You much fast learn, you do, wise one.
Yoda says Wallabies by heaps, and Drew Mitchell first try (@ 14-1, WTF)
Posted 13:41 04th September 2010
justice_4_all says...
@Trinats, I'm so nervous, that I just took 4 to 1 on Oz to win....a kind of insurance policy. I'll either be very, very happy if the Boks win or drowning my sorrow in style. Good luck to all of Oz and remember when you win the "bronze" in the Tri-Nations, that is worth more than the gold in any other rugby union competition, except the big one where the the three of us are currently 5 for 6 and likely to be 6 for 7 next year....this says something about how we challenge and motivate each other to improve...so go for it Wallabies: let's see some of that champagne rugby Beale and Mitchel and the rest have been showing flashes of in the last few matches. (but Boks still to win by less than 10)
Posted 12:33 04th September 2010
Trinats says...
ManWarrior:
Du Preez in no where in the league of Joost van der Westhuizen (for me he was the best, just edging Gregan). Du Preez is very good and exceptional against weaker sides. Last time he played a near full strength Aussie side the score was 21-6 in favour of Aus. We were able to work him out and close down the blindside, and he doesn't fair too well against stronger sides in the Super 14 either. Got to remember he was behind an awesome pack to give him the room. I wouldn't be too sure he will get a starting berth when returns from injury he is nearly 30 !.
Will Ginea is creating his "own" mould at only 22, don't kick it , you only give the pill away !!!
As for the refs, we don't whinge after wash up, it's over you can't change it move on.
Good Luck tonight, you'll need it !!!!!
Posted 10:33 04th September 2010
ManWarrior says...
@Trinats, thanks for the 'heads up', Bok RWC2011 Champs.
Your comment read something to the tune of (and I quote)'But it will come down to the REFS interpretation'...and this from an Aussie that has labelled us SAFFAS as whingers? And lastly, boet, Fourie Du Preez fasioned his game after Joost van der Westhuizen who was one of the Words best scrumhalves. He was good in every way but it was his sniping runs down the blind side that made him 'special'. Like wise, Fourie du Preez is even better and his kicking game is just one aspect of his accuracy and talent. Will Ginea would fit his mould if he could kick as well.
OK, I'm done educating you now, the Springboks will do the rest tomorrow.
Go Bokke. RWC2011 Champs!
Posted 20:40 03rd September 2010
tuco says...
completely agree with SA NOT being full strength, for them missing du preez and brussow is like for the abs playing without carter and mccaw.... and i really doubt they would call that a full strength side... hardly half strength
by the way i'm an ab fan... but an objective one
Posted 18:05 03rd September 2010
5Lock4ward says...
True Trinats, IF is a big word. I agree wholeheartedly that when Horwill comes back things will change to the good for Australia. Vickerman will make a big difference as well once he gets back into the swing of things. I just think Australia need to find a proper #8 and I think Hoiles is that man if he can remain healthy. I also think Rodzilla could be back in a Wallaby jersey faster than one might imagine. They have amazing backs and when they can straighten out the tight 5 I'd say your right to expect huge huge things from that squad.
Posted 16:11 03rd September 2010
rognvald says...
The pesistence with which the Aussies to "win" is becoming laughable . Eventually a prediction of an Oz win at altitude will be realised but I'd hesitate to predict the century in which this might occur.
Posted 15:23 03rd September 2010
Trinats says...
5Lock4ward:
I agree, as I said can't believe, ("just have to marvel at them") we are still up their.
"If France hadn't lost their match to Los Pumas" If, If, If, IF Gits could kick a goal straight in front of the posts, or IF only we had 15 players on the field for Melbourne game, or IF only we had just a couple of first choice forwards back from injury, IF only Campese was still playing, we would be ranked No1.
What goes around comes around. We lost a very good team of true superstars (Gregans, Larkhams, Eales, Lathems etc) through retirement and rebuilt over the past 5/6 years. Current side is very young (and with heaps of injuries) and competing with the best NZ and SA sides (again with superstars, McCaw, Carter, Smit, Matfield etc) but very shortly (maybe before RWC) they will be retiring and will take time to rebuild, how far ahead will Aus be in the next few years, it's scary to think !!
Deep down I'm hoping Boks do win and PVD is retained as coach to mislea... (whoops) lead SA to the RWC !!! And "Link" to take over from Deans so it's an all Aussie affair when we lift BILL next year.
ManWarrior:
RWC is in 2011not 2010, but you keep dreaming, we'll wake you when it's over.
Posted 15:18 03rd September 2010
Brandolin says...
Boks by 12.. great centre pairing, stronger pack, Robotic goal kicker, Januarie's not playing. Would really like to see Kankowski starting though.. not sure for who as the back row are all solid ball carriers.
Australia does not have its 1st pick of players and neither does SA.. maybe Australia has it worse. But it does not matter, injuries happen, a team is about depth as well and its only as strong as the players it can field on the day. If a team doesn't win the world cup because its star player was injured then it just means it does not have enough other good players to take his place!
Agreed - photoshop man needs practice.
Posted 14:54 03rd September 2010
Carpelone says...
Australia has not a great forwards group, in addition Cooper should play a more sensible rugby rather to invent things his mates do not even understand.
They are not where I was expecting them to be.
On the other end, the Springboks when at full strength are not far from the ABs. In addition, the way ABs play is suitable for Test Rugby, but not for RWC, when you have to play 7 bruising games, which leave you without energy when it counts. AB 2005 class looked even better than this side, they were all re-conditioned and they went out soon. This will happen again.
Tomorrow, SA by ten, if they do not take lightly the Wallabies as they did last week in the first 20 minutes.
Posted 14:47 03rd September 2010
robo says...
I will point out that "you've 'not' got a you've got a full-strength Springbok side" this Saturday. Fourie du Preez is recovering from surgery. Bismarrck du Plessis is on the mend after a neck operation, and although Chiliboy Ralapelle did well last week in the loose, he did not improve the set pieces and at club level is not even second choice. After much messing around Francois Steyn has returned, but had he been called back a lot sooner would be better prepared and fitter. It might not be polite to say so, but Bakkies Botha is still absent after being suspended. So, hardly a "full-strength Springbok side", but I do agree that more changes need to be made, something evident to many except, evidently, those who should know but don't, in effect Peter de Villiers and the selectors.
Posted 14:19 03rd September 2010
danut says...
If OZ would have gone directly to Bloem,to stay at altitude the hole week,Bokke would have been in danger!!
But with OZ in vacation in Durban Boks by 8.
Posted 14:09 03rd September 2010
wellwellwell says...
Boks by 22. Was off by two last week so I'm compensating.
Posted 13:36 03rd September 2010
5Lock4ward says...
Not to disagree too harshly Trinats, but I think it's Australia who is lucky to be in the top 3. If France hadn't lost their match to Los Pumas, who had already lost twice to Scotland (who by the way also defeated Australia), then it would be France in the #3 spot. Based on the Wallabies current form I think France gives both South Africa and New Zealand more of a scare before kick off than the Wallabies do. South Africa are long in the tooth and had their head coach been less sentimental he'd have dropped most of his current starters in favor of some new blood, allowing the newbies to get some valuable 3N test match experience under their belt before next year's RWC. He's going to bat with the good ol' boys knowing that win or lose he's out of a job when it's all said and done. And the only one's to lose out are the players who deserve to wear the Boks jersey right now based on form and the Springbok fans. I am not a Bok fan but it is foolish to write them off when a smoldering and rested Bakkies Botha returns; not to mention a game changer named Heinrich Brussow who had just started to get a taste for test match success before injury. And if PDV wasn't so foolish he'd have put his newest SA citizen aka the Beast back into the first XV asap, another game changer.
Posted 13:20 03rd September 2010
ManWarrior says...
Aussie second side to lose by 30.
Aussie second side to beat the All Blacks by 10.
Sanity restored for the 3 power houses of world rugby...
Next year is gonna be a cracker!
Go Bokke! RWC2010 Champs!
Posted 13:12 03rd September 2010
sanzarian says...
Trinats: Betfair mate. Average across all the other bookies is about 3.5 for a win.
Posted 12:55 03rd September 2010
Trinats says...
sanzarian:
What bookies? id love to get on those odds.
Posted 12:25 03rd September 2010
Trinats says...
Brasilrugger: It's because they are surviving on last years results for the rankings, beating the number one side (all be it a second string side and rebuilding) in the world, at home and twice in SA catapulted the boks into second. By the time December rolls around SA (on current form 50% win/lose) will be lucky to be in the top 5. Which is scary, because when they entered the 1995 world cup they were just in the top ten. Might be time to find Suzie!!!.
As much as you hate Aus, you just have to marvel at them, in Brasil you probably have bigger support/playing numbers (numbers not %) than Aus in rugby following, yet Australia are still ranked 3rd in the world and after this weekend 2nd.
Justice 4 all: mate, i can't keep folding on these predictions. Just going on last week, if we can win 50% of our OWN lineout inside the 22 we should convert to points against an aging team. I thought your defence was great (saved you the game) With regards to Gits, he is like Habana, bit lost at moment so no big deal to bring on Barnes as a replacement, I guess deans is keeping him in there for some senior players on the field as he is one of the oldest at 26. Lineouts should be better this week with Chisholm and McCalam in for a very criticised Brown and under preforming Mumm.
But it will come down to the REFS interpretation and either side could run away with it. I'm predicting the inconsistent wallabies to run away with it. I have changed my lucky socks for this one, And hopefully HOPEFULLY, back up again next week.
As for missing du Preez, if he had played last week hed would have done his usual box kick or kicks down field and given away possession and you'd have missed out on your 5 trys (when was the last time SA scored 5 trys !!). Not sure his style will fit in with the new laws when you need to hold onto the ball.
Posted 12:09 03rd September 2010
sanzarian says...
The last 60min of the Loftus game was won by the Boks by 37 points to just 10 of the Wallabies. Everybody's writing of this Bok team and maybe rightly so, but somehow I think the Aussies are not going to be anywhere near the Boks this weekend. Bookies seem to be agreeing with me too with the Wannabees @ 4.2 and Springboks 1.34 paying for a win.
Posted 11:42 03rd September 2010