Background to rankings

What are the Zurich World Team Rankings?

With the advent of the World Cup as rugby's ultimate prize, the game has become increasingly global as teams seek to prepare themselves with regular internationals against other top competing nations. Not only does this mean that we have rugby on offer virtually every weekend of the year but also that we can add to the debate with a meaningful rugby ranking system.
Back in 1998 we developed a ratings system based on a unique formula developed by our panel of top rugby statistical experts to accurately reflect current form based on recent results, the quality of the opposition, whether the game was home or away, etc.

These rankings can then use the formula to predict the outcome of Tests. Of course, one of the great delights of rugby is the difficulty of picking a winner given extreme weather conditions or crucial injuries before or during the game, but that's not going to deter us from making our prediction!

So if you think we are doing it wrong get in touch and let us know why - just remember that if 50 per cent of you think Australia should be lower in the rankings and 50 per cent think they should be higher, we reckon we're about spot on!

How the World Team Rankings are worked out?

Well obviously the formula is rather large and complex but the ranking points are calculated by running a recent Test result through a computer programme that takes in to account factors such as the quality of the opposition, the points difference, whether the game was home or away, the results in relation to the computer prediction etc.
One of the most important aspects is the 'time weighting' element.

Time weighting essentially means that games played more recently should hold greater significance than those played, say, a year ago. For the World Rankings we started by ranking the teams by virtue of their performance in the 1995 World Cup. Latterly, with the emergence of smaller nations such as Georgia, we included their results from January 1, 1998.

In our collective wisdom we have decided that only the previous 12 matches for each country should count towards changes in ranking points. With major nations playing between 10-15 internationals a year this means that the ratings will generally not reflect games from over 18 months ago.

The points accrued by each team are then translated into our rating system and output by the computer to produce the latest rankings list.

When are the World Team Rankings updated?

The rankings will be updated on the 1st of every calendar month or the first Monday of the month if the 1st falls on a weekend, or public holiday, in the United Kingdom.

Isn't it all completely subjective?

No. The results produced by the formula are not subjective hence it really can predict a massive, and arguably inflated, victory between two nations. The only area that is possibly open to debate is the decision to give a side that is playing at home an advantage.

What are the Zurich World Player Rankings?

The Zurich World Player Rankings are an attempt to draw detailed statistical analysis of the game's players in to some sort of structure. It is not an attempt to judge a player's qualities but merely to provide a platform for discussion.
Clearly some aspects of rugby are impossible to judge, that split second faster pass, the more lethal side-step or the mere presence on the field but what the rankings do is deal with the plain facts.

What players are analysed and in what games?

Given the logistical effort put in to each game analysis, only games which feature two teams that participate in the Six Nations or Tri-Nations will be included. For example, Italy v New Zealand would be included but England v Argentina would not.
For the launch of the player rankings on October 9, 2001 only games in the 2001 Six Nations and Tri-Nations will have been included and not internationals held outside these tournaments in June/July 2001.

How are the Zurich World Player Rankings worked out?

Every aspect of a player's performance is analysed. All players are then graded on 1) how well they perform their core skills (e.g hooker throwing in to the lineout or fullback fielding high ball, tackling etc) and 2) Their contribution to the game outside their core skills. Each position on the field has a different formula for calculating performance to allow for the difference in responsibility and emphasis of that position.
For example a prop has two core skills in a game 1) To ensure his side's scrum is solid and they win all their own put-ins and 2) To ensure that if he takes the ball into contact, the ball comes back on his side.

If he makes an error on performing his core skills he will be penalised twice as heavily as if he makes an error in a supplementary contributions to the game, say a missed tackle or a dropped pass. He will score bonus points by successfully making supplementary contributions to the game like a 10m run or a tackle.

Allowances are also made for time spent on the pitch. If you wish to see the breakdown of an individual player's performance then simply click onto his name. You will then see why he has scored well or poorly. Ask yourself these questions when studying the results.

 - Did he make any mistakes in performing his core skills?
 - Did he make a significant supplementary contribution to the game?
 - How long was he on the pitch?
 - Did he play in the same posititon for the whole match? 
(Players are graded on their performance in a specific position. Therefore if Lawrence Dallaglio moves from No.8 to No.6 at half time he will have two entries of 40 minutes and therefore may not scored quite as   well as if he had played at No.8 for 80 minutes even though allowance is made of this eventuality).

Is any allowance taken of the opposition?

No. Whilst it may be true that certain teams are harder to play against, you can only judge a player on what he is asked to do. If a player single-handledly beats team X and puts in the most impressive individual performance ever, but never plays team Y for whatever reason, is it fair to say on that basis he can not be judged equally?
Besides, these player rankings are based on a calendar year and in that time all nine countries included nearly play eachother once in that period so it should even out.

When are the Zurich World Player Rankings updated?

Each game is subjected to detailed video anlaysis which can take many hours. Give this logistical effort the updated player rankings will only be on-line around five to seven days after the conclusion of the game.

Who are Zurich?

Zurich Financial Services Group ia a leading financial services organisation providing financial protection and asset accumulation solutions for more than 35 million customers in over 60 countries worldwide.
Although the history of the former Zurich Group goes back over 125 years, the modern Zurich Financial Services Group was born in 1998 from the merger with the financial services businesses of B.A.T. Industries.
The Group employs more than 60,000 employees around the world.

In 2001, the Group's net income was $2.328 billion, with total assets under management of $440 billion.
The Group covers a number of well known brands such as Eagle Star, Allied Dunbar and Zurich in the UK, together with Farmers in the United States.
Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, the Group stands for customer dedication, innovation, financial stability and value creation. Our approach is to design solutions based on a comprehensive understanding of our customers' needs.

The organisation places a strong emphasis on working with the community, being one of the UK's largest corporate grant givers
The Group's website is at www.zurich.co.uk

Stuart Farmer Media Services 

Stuart Farmer Media Services (SFMS) was set up in 1993 to provide the sporting media with comprehensive, accurate and timely statistics, thoroughly researched history and publicity.
SFMS have a unique approach to statistics which utilises the latest in computer database technology and involves the most comprehensive research ever undertaken for international rugby, "A" internationals, Super-12, English, Welsh, Scottish, Irish and French leagues, touring games, European Cup and divisional rugby.