Preview - France v Scotland

Can Scotland do the unthinkable?

Scotland head off for Paris to play France at Stade de France. However brave their ancestors may have been against proud Edward and his army, it must be a daunting task for 22 young Scots as they go across the Channel to face proud Fabien and his warriors.

Paris - city of light, city of love, a desired destination for any young man. It may just be heartbreak hotel for the Scots.

There was a time when Scotland was France's bête noire. That time may not be now. If you were a betting man you would need at least three things to bet big on a Scottish victory - courage, a touch of madness and good information from a successful match-fixer.

Oh, the surprising can happen but a Scottish victory in the suburb of Saint-Denis this weekend looks the stuff that miracles are made of.

The Scots have three counts against them - the sickening squabbling and counter-squabbling in the union, the injuries and withdrawals, and then the class of their opposition.

All teams have injuries at the moment in the wake of a tough November, tough internal competitions and a frenetic burst of Heineken Cup action.

France are without Imanol Harinordoquy, Serge Betsen, Nicolas Brusque, Julien Peyrelongue, Tony Marsh and Yannick Jauzion.

Scotland have Simon Taylor, lively Donny MacFadyen, Scott Gray, Scott MacLeod, Andrew Wilson, Alan MacDonald and Allan Jacobsen out injured. And some of those returning from injury may still be a bit tender - Allister Hogg, Tom Smith, Simon Danielli and Scott Murray.

If we left the world of generalisation in matching up the sides, it is hard to see a place, other than scrum-half, where Scotland may have the edge. And a scrum-half depends on those who deliver the ball to him. Mind you, they may well have an edge at fullback as well, but fullbacks are not always dominant factors in a match.

Line-outs may provide the Scots' best ball-delivery from athletic locks and three big loose forwards, but France should at least win their own. At scrum time, France look stronger in their tight five, even with the return of Tom Smith. After the tackle Sébastien Chabal could just be the key man to do Serge Betsen's job.

From the fly-half to the wings, France look stronger, faster and more skilled. If you take the fullbacks in isolation, Chris Paterson looks more reliable than faster Pépito Elhorga, but these days the fullback seldom plays on his own. He has his wings, scrum-half and No.8 to help him - mostly the wings, and there France seem to have decided edge in speed and creativity.

Goal-kicking may just become critical if Scotland can keep France from their goal-line. Chris Paterson is certainly accurate, perhaps more so than either Yann Delaigue or, from longer distances, Damien Traille, but then one wonders how many chances Scotland will have to kick at goal.

Overall it suggests a French victory.

But the glory of sport is the unexpected. As France did to New Zealand in 1999 at the World Cup, so Scotland have done to France - and can do again.

Remember 1999? That day at Stade de France, Scotland won a thrilling encounter 36-22, five tries to three. They are not nearly as successful in Paris as they are in Edinburgh where they once won seven times in a row.

History repeats itself, they say, and part of France's rugby history is inconsistency - the ability to come apart and act disaffected.

Players to watch:

For France: On the French side I would always watch darting, daring, energetic Christophe Dominici, remembering his magic against New Zealand in 1999 and his bizarre gaffe against Italy in 2004 when he played Joe Cool and dropped the ball over the goal-line with not an Italian insight. He is a great entertainer.

For Scotland: On the Scottish side I would, above all, watch scrum-half Chris Cusiter. From his very first Test - against Wales in the Six Nations just last year - he made an instant impression. Even then, 21 years of age, he had a star shining above his head with his judgment, secure, quick passing, and eye for an opportunity.

Head to Head: There are several group rivalries - locks against locks for example, But there also individual battles.

Damien Traille (France) against Hugo Southwell (Scotland). The speedy, adventurous Scot is usually a fullback but had a nightmare in the blue No.15 jersey against South Africa in November. Traille is usually a centre but has been playing fly-half lately. Southwell, at 1,88m and 95 kg, is not small but Traille is bigger at 1,93m and 100 kg. Traille has far greater experience.

Tall Patrick Tabacco (France), back from injury, against tall Allister Hogg (Scotland), back from injury, presents a contest which the Scot, given a fair chance by his tight forwards, could well win.

Pierre Mignoni (France) against Chris Cusiter (Scotland) - the older hand who has spent much of his international time on the touch-line against the younger Scot who must be the first name the selectors write down. Bernard Laporte wanted Mignoni for his leadership - decision-making. Cusiter does that as well.

Warhorse against warhorse, tighthead against loosehead, Pieter de Villiers (France) against Tom Smith (Scotland), both great players in their positions, both troubled by injury of late, both veterans. It could be an interesting battle.

Sturdy Gordon Bulloch (Scotland) against ubiquitous William Servat (France), a man they thought of shifting from hooker to No.8. Hookers are always interesting to watch with their earnest rituals and cunning ways.

Previous results:

2004: France beat Scotland 31-0 at Murrayfield   
2003: France beat Scotland 51-9 at Sydney Stadium (RWC)   
2003: France beat Scotland 38-3 at Stade de France   
2002: France beat Scotland 22-10 at Murrayfield   
2001: France beat Scotland 16-6 at Stade de France   
2000: France beat Scotland 28-16 at Murrayfield   
1999: Scotland beat France, 36-22 at Stade de France   
1998: France beat Scotland 51-16 at Murrayfield   
1997: France beat Scotland 47-20 at Parc des Princes   
1996: Scotland beat France, 19-14 at Murrayfield

Prediction: If France turn up in their best outfits and put their best foot forward they will win handsomely.
Planet Rugby prediction: France by 30 points.
sportingodds.com prediction: France by 24 points.

The teams:

France: 15 Pépito Elhorga, 14 Aurélien Rougerie, 13 Brian Liebenberg, 12 Damien Traille, 11 Christophe Dominici, 10 Yann Delaigue, 9 Pierre Mignoni, 8 Patrick Tabacco, 7 Sébastien Chabal, 6 Julien Bonnaire, 5 Jérôme Thion, 4 Fabien Pelous captain, 3 Pieter de Villiers, 2 William Servat , 1 Sylvain Marconnet.
Replacements: 16 Sébastien Bruno, 17 Olivier Milloud , 18 Grégory Lamboley , 19 Yannick Nyanga, 20 Dimitri Yachvili, 21 Frédéric Michalak , 22 Ludovic Valbon.

Scotland: 15 Chris Paterson, 14 Simon Danielli, 13 Andy Craig, 12 Hugo Southwell, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Chris Cusiter, 8 Allister Hogg, 7 Jon Petrie, 6 Jason White, 5 Scott Murray, 4 Stuart Grimes, 3 Gavin Kerr, 2 Gordon Bulloch captain, 1 Tom Smith.
Replacements: 16 Robbie Russell, 17 Bruce Douglas, 18 Nathan Hines, 19 Jon Dunbar, 20 Mike Blair, 21 Gordon Ross, 22 Ben Hinshelwood.

Date: Saturday, 5 February 2005
Kick-off: 15.00 (14.00 GMT)
Venue: Stade de France
Conditions: Overcast with a high of 7°C, dropping to 3°C, and a wind from the south of 21 km/h, dropping to 14 km/h 
Referee: Nigel Williams (Wales)
Touch judges: Chris White (England), Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)
Assessor: Stuart Beissel (New Zealand)
Television match official: Simon McDowell (Ireland)