Six Nations preview - Scotland v Ireland

Can the Scots capitalise on Ireland's misfortune?

The opening matches of the 2005 Six Nations were fascinating. Defeated, Scotland could draw more confidence than Ireland in victory. They certainly drew more kudos.

In defeat Scotland were roundly praised for their resolution against France in Paris, while Italy emerged with more credit than Ireland did in Rome.

Scotland played with great determination and - deservedly - led for most of their match, losing out to Lady Luck as much as anything else. In Rome, the Irish pack was shaded and it was just their speed that beat the constructive Italians.

Ireland will hope that greater speed will count against the Scots, but the best of it will be missing in the absence of Gordon D'Arcy and captain Brian O'Driscoll who 'made' two of Ireland's three tries last weekend.

What Scotland proved against France is that there forwards are strong enough to do the job, that they have in Allister Hogg a loose forward of rare flair and in Jason White a loose forward of huge impact.

They also showed that their defence is all in place, and their job should be easier without the genius of O'Driscoll or the verve of D'Arcy.

They also showed that they have a simple game plan, which always suits rugby players not blessed with genius or verve. But more than that they showed determination.

The Irish pack can lift its game, if they are not all getting near the brow of the hill if not over it. Six of the pack are over the age of 30, leaving Paul O'Connell and Jonny O'Connor to provide youthful energy.

Expect Scotland to get stuck into the Irish pack. Italy coped with the Irish line-out and scrum. Scotland coped with the French line-out, though they were less happy at scrum time.

Expect Ireland to bash at the Scottish midfield, as they used Shane Horgan to do against Italy. Sides cope easier with bashers than with speed merchants.

Players to watch:

For Scotland: Edinburgh star Allister Hogg is a grand player with all the attributes of a great No.8 - speed, skill and enthusiasm.

For Ireland: Leicester Tiger fullback Geordan Murphy seems able to do anything a star rugby player could want to do and adds to it timing born of an intuitive grasp of the game.

Head to head: Chris Cusiter (Scotland) v Peter Stringer (Ireland): Young Turk against Old Hand. Cusiter is Scotland's best player, Stringer Ireland's most consistent. Cusiter is young enough to get on with the game, Stringer competitive enough to want to stop him from doing so. Cusiter's quick, long pass will ensure that Dan Parks gets luxury service while Stringer knows O'Gara inside out and will protect him. Both will be in Lions' contention for later in the year.

Also possible Lions are the two hookers - sturdy Gordon Bulloch of Scotland and hirsute, get-about Shane Byrne of Ireland - both men who simply get on with the job, Bulloch steadier, Byrne more use about the field.

Recent results:

2004: Ireland beat Scotland 37-16 at Lansdowne Road
2003: Ireland beat Scotland 29-10 at Murrayfield (RWC warm-up)
2003: Ireland beat Scotland 36-6 at Murrayfield
2002: Ireland beat Scotland 43-22 at Lansdowne Road
2001: Scotland beat Ireland 32-10 at Murrayfield
2000: Ireland beat Scotland 44-22 at Lansdowne Road
1999: Scotland beat Ireland 30-13 at Murrayfield
1998: Scotland beat Ireland 17-16 at Lansdowne Road
1997: Scotland beat Ireland 38-10 at Murrayfield
1996: Scotland beat Ireland 16-10 at Lansdowne Road
1995: Scotland beat Ireland 26-13 at Murrayfield
1994: Draw 6-6 at Lansdowne Road
1993: Scotland beat Ireland 15-3 at Murrayfield

There have been 117 matches between the two countries. Scotland have won 62, Ireland 50 and there have been five draws.

Prediction: Last week we were certainly not prophets in working out the Scotland result. But this week we are going to obey the evidence of the opening round's matches and suggest that Scotland to sneak it. Good away, they should be better at home.
Planet Rugby prediction: Scotland by 4 points.
sportingodds.com prediction: Ireland by 7 points.

The teams:

Scotland: 15 Chris Paterson (Edinburgh Rugby), 14 Simon Danielli (The Borders), 13 Andy Craig (Glasgow Rugby), 12 Hugo Southwell (Edinburgh Rugby), 11 Sean Lamont (Glasgow Rugby), 10 Dan Parks (Glasgow Rugby), 9 Chris Cusiter (The Borders), 8 Allister Hogg (Edinburgh Rugby), 7 Jon Petrie (Glasgow Rugby), 6 Jason White (Sale Sharks), 5 Scott Murray (Edinburgh Rugby), 4 Stuart Grimes (Newcastle Falcons), 3 Gavin Kerr (Leeds Tykes), 2 Gordon Bulloch (Glasgow Rugby, captain), 1 Tom Smith (Northampton Saints).
Replacements: 16 Robbie Russell (London Irish), 17 Bruce Douglas (The Borders), 18 Nathan Hines (Edinburgh Rugby), 19 Jon Dunbar (Leeds Tykes), 20 Mike Blair (Edinburgh Rugby), 21 Gordon Ross (Leeds Tykes), 22 Ben Hinshelwood (Worcester Warriors).

Ireland (revised): 15 Geordan Murphy (Leicester Tigers), 14 Girvan Dempsey (Leinster), 13 Shane Horgan (Leinster), 12 Kevin Maggs (Ulster), 11 Dennis Hickie (Leinster), 10 Ronan O'Gara (Munster), 9 Peter Stringer (Munster), 8 Anthony Foley (Munster), 7 Johnny O'Connor (London Wasps), 6 Simon Easterby (Llanelli Scarlets), 5 Paul O'Connell (Munster), 4 Malcolm O'Kelly (Leinster), 3 John Hayes (Munster), 2 Shane Byrne (Leinster), 1 Reggie Corrigan (Leinster).
Replacements: 16 Frankie Sheahan (Munster), 17 Marcus Horan (Munster), 18 Donncha O'Callaghan (Munster), 19 Eric Miller (Leinster), 20 Guy Easterby (Leinster), 21 David Humphreys (Ulster), 22 Gavin Duffy (NEC Harlequins).

Date: Saturday, February 12
Kick-off: 16.00 GMT
Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh
Conditions: Partly cloudy with a high of 7°C, dropping to 0°C and a wind of 32 km/h freshening.
Referee: Joël Jutge (France)
Touch judges: Steve Walsh (New Zealand), Giulio De Santis (Italy)
Assessor: Stuart Beissel (New Zealand)
Television match official: Nigel Owens (Wales)