Kiwis give SH a big edge

Who can challenge France on home soil?

All the international matches for 2005 are complete and with just under two years to go to the 2007 Rugby World Cup tournament in France now is a good time to look at any possible trends that may have developed.

We may be able to suggest that some teams are early favourites, although it will have no real influence on the outcome of the tournament in 2007 ... but it is a nice game to play anyway.

Obviously there is the perennial debate of Northern Hemisphere versus Southern Hemisphere and who has the edge. That we will discuss.

But much more fun is to have a look at the teams that are most likely to challenge for overall honours at RWC 2007 and for that we don't have to look outside the Six Nations/Tri-Nations amalgam - England, France, Wales, Ireland, Scotland, Italy, New Zealand, South Africa and Australia.

In fact you can easily narrow that down to just four or five, six at a push - England, France, New Zealand, South Africa and Australia. Wales and maybe Ireland fall in the 'dark horses' category (maybe Australia also belong there, based on their current form).

You'd probably be accused of clutching at straws if you were to suggest Scotland and Italy will be serious challengers. Argentina appear to be a far bigger threat than both Scotland and Italy, but they are still a step or two behind the likes of New Zealand, France, England and South Africa.

Maybe the Pumas can also be listed as an outside bet.

But for this exercise we will look at how the Six Nations teams fared against their Tri-Nations counterparts in 2005 and if there is a specific pattern.

The teams from the two hemispheres' major competitions met 14 times on the rugby field this year.

The Tri-Nations teams won nine times (a 64.28 percent success rate), the Six Nations recorded four victories (28.6 percent) and there was one draw.

The Tri-Nations teams played only four of those games on their home soil, winning three (75 percent) and drawing one. Of the 10 games on Northern Hemisphere soil the southern triumvirate won six (60 percent) and the north claimed four wins.

But the key here is that four of the south's away victories were recorded by the All Blacks on their relentless march to a second Grand Slam.

South Africa (against Wales) and Australia (against Ireland) managed just one away win each against a Six Nations rival.

This means only the Kiwis have recorded significant away victories and can thus look forward to 2007 with confidence. In fact the All Blacks have given the Tri-Nations/Southern Hemisphere a big edge.

Another noteworthy fact is that France have managed to beat both South Africa and Australia convincingly in November and will have a significant home ground advantage in 2007.

But back to the 6N versus 3N debate.

The Tri-Nations teams scored 438 points and conceded 266, for a match average of 31-19 in favour of the south.

The 3N teams scored 51 tries and conceded 26, a match average of 4-2.

The picture doesn't change much if we include all the Northern Hemisphere versus Northern Hemisphere matches for 2005 - that means games involving the likes of Argentina, the British and Irish Lions Tour to New Zealand, Fiji and Samoa.

Teams from the two hemispheres met on 29 occasions this year, with the south winning 16 matches (55.2 percent) and the north 11 (37.9 percent). Two matches ended in a draw.

The most significant aspect of the enlarged picture is that teams from the north managed just one away win and an away draw this year, while the south (thanks again to the Kiwis' obvious dominance) won nine of the 20 matches played on Northern Hemisphere soil.

Ironically, the north's only away win came when Italy beat Argentina in Cordoba in June, while France drew with South Africa in Durban.

The south scored 762 points and the north 623 (a match average of 26-21 in favour of the south). The south scored 84 tries and the north 59, a match average of 3-2.

The gap between the teams from the two hemispheres is not as big as it appeared earlier this year, but it is also clear that New Zealand (home and away) and France (at home) recorded the most significant victories this year.

England, South Africa and Australia can't be discarded and will always be competitive.

But will the picture have changed by 2007?

Only time will tell.

Statistics provided by Pick and Go!

Compile by Jan de Koning