Heineken Cup permutations

Who needs to do what this weekend

With just one more round to go before the Heineken Cup enters the knock-out stages, there are still seven quarter-final spots up for grabs.

Leinster the one team still able to boast a 100 percent record are the only side certain to qualify for the 2004/05 Heineken Cup quarter-finals.

The identities of the other seven challengers will be unveiled this weekend - but with 13 teams still in the hunt, you are advised to keep a calculator within reach this weekend.

Leinster could be excused for feeling smug, but nothing can be taken for granted in this fabulous competition. 

The record books show us that only three teams in the history of the Heineken Cup have gone through a six-match Pool campaign undefeated  - London Wasps in 1997/98, Bath in 2001/2002 and Leinster in 2002/2003 - but none of those sides went on to hoist the silverware!

Both Wasps and Bath lost at home in the quarter-finals, while Leinster were beaten at Lansdowne Road by Perpignan in the semi-finals.

OK, engage those brains - it's time to have a recap of the rules before we have a look at how the pools are currently poised.

QUALICATION RULES

Pool Matches - four points for a win, two points for a draw (match points). A bonus point will be earned by a team scoring four or more tries and by a team losing by seven or less points. The six Pool winners and two best placed runners-up will qualify for the Quarter-Finals and will be decided by the following criteria:

(i) the Pool winner will be the Club with the highest number of match points earned in each Pool. The runners-up will be the two second placed Clubs from all six Pools with the next highest number of points. For the Quarter-Final round, the Pool winners will be ranked 1 - 6 in terms of the number of points earned. The runners-up will be ranked 7 and 8.

(ii) if Clubs are equal on points and the Clubs are in the same Pool, then qualification/ranking will be based on the matches played between the Clubs concerned:

(a) the Club which has earned the most number of match points from the matches (four points for a win, two points for a draw and bonus points).
(b) the Club which has scored the most tries in the matches.
(c) the Club with the best points difference from the matches.

(iii) if still unresolved, or the teams have not played each other previously in the Pool stage, qualification/ranking will be based on:

(a) the number of tries scored in all Pool matches.
(b) aggregate points difference from all Pool matches.
(c) the Club with the fewest number of players sent off and/or suspended in all Pool matches.
(d) toss of a coin.

Teams ranked 1 to 4 will have home advantage.

The Quarter-Finals will be:

Team 1 v Team 8; Team 2 v Team 7; Team 3 v Team 6; Team 4 v Team 5.

POOL ONE:

Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	BP	Pts
Biarritz	5	4	0	1	145	77	2	18
Wasps	5	3	0	2	159	120	3	15
Leicester	5	3	0	2	134	108	2	14
Calvisano	5	0	0	5	69	202	0	0

Saturday, 15 January: Calvisano v Leicester Tigers, 15:00 GMT
Saturday, 15 January: Biarritz Olympique v London Wasps, 15:00 GMT

This was always going to be the toughest group, but who would have thought it would have been this tight?

Calvisano are dead ducks, but Biarritz, Wasps and Leicester could easily all end up on 19 points.

Biarritz are in the box-seat, and a win of any type will see them through as top dogs of Pool One.

But a Wasps win in France will put the cat slap bang in the middle of the pigeons!

A bonus-point win for the Londoners will see them win the group.

A simple Wasps win (with no bonus points for their hosts) could see them finish tied at the top with Leicester, who should be able to conjure a bonus-point win in Italy.

The three-way 19-point tie will emerge if Biarritz manage to claim a bonus point in defeat, and Wasps fail to score a bonus point in victory, AND if Leicester do the business in Calvisano.

POOL TWO:

Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	BP	Pts
Leinster	5	5	0	0	200	83	1	21
Treviso	5	3	0	2	119	124	2	14
Bath	5	2	0	3	126	105	3	11
Bourgoin	5	0	0	5	81	214	1	1

Saturday, 15 January: Leinster v Benetton Treviso, 17:15 GMT
Saturday, 15 January: Bourgoin v Bath, 17:15 GMT

Leinster are through, and Treviso can progress if they manage to take all five points in Dublin and things go their way elsewhere.

Bath against Bourgoin are both out of contention.

POOL THREE:

Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	BP	Pts
Toulouse	5	4	0	1	128	68	3	19
Northampton	5	4	0	1	95	78	0	16
Llanelli	5	2	0	3	96	104	4	12
Glasgow	5	0	0	5	84	153	2	2

Friday, 14 January: Northampton Saints v Glasgow, 19:30 GMT
Friday, 14 January: Toulouse v Llanelli Scarlets, 19:30 GMT

Two home wins on Friday night will see Toulouse and Northampton go through to the quarter-finals.
 
Toulouse could actually lose and still go through, but a bonus-point French victory should see them qualify as second seeds, so they still have plenty to play for.

The Saints are currently the best second-placed outfit in the competition, and a win will put them through.

POOL FOUR:

Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	BP	Pts
Munster	5	4	0	1	103	64	2	18
Castres	5	3	1	1	146	101	2	16
Neath/Swansea	5	2	0	3	115	104	2	10
Harlequins	5	0	1	4	71	166	1	3

Saturday, 15 January: NEC Harlequins v Munster, 13:00 GMT
Saturday, 15 January: Neath Swansea Ospreys v Castres Olympique, 13:00 GMT

Munster should feel pretty confident. They know that a victory over NEC Harlequins guarantees them a quarter-final berth.

Castres are in contention for one of the runners-up spots, but face a tricky trip to the Neath-Swansea Ospreys.

If Munster slip up against Quins, Castres can top the Pool with a win over the Ospreys.

POOL FIVE:

Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	BP	Pts
Newcastle	5	4	0	1	88	87	1	17
Gwent	5	3	0	2	107	74	3	15
Perpignan	5	3	0	2	116	67	3	15
Edinburgh	5	0	0	5	52	135	2	2

Sunday, 16 January: Newcastle Falcons v Newport Gwent Dragons, 13:00 GMT
Sunday, 16 January: Edinburgh v Perpignan, 13:00 GMT

Pool Five is Newcastle's for the taking. The English simply have to beat the Dragons to ensure qualification.

But a Dragons win will move them into contention, with Perpignan also moving into the calculations if they beat Edinburgh in Scotland!

Perpignan haven't travelled well, but have the possibility of securing five points in Edinburgh, which would see them in the hunt for either Pool winners or a best runners-up spot, depending on the outcome in Newcastle.

POOL SIX:

Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	BP	Pts
Stade	5	4	0	1	152	90	3	19
Gloucester	5	3	0	2	144	101	2	14
Ulster	5	3	0	2	76	123	0	12
Cardiff	5	0	0	5	82	140	3	3

Sunday, 16 January: Cardiff Blues v Ulster, 15:00 GMT
Sunday, 16 January: Gloucester v Stade Français, 15:00 GMT

Stade Français lead Pool Six by five points, but face a daunting trip to Kingsholm where Gloucester will be eager to secure the bonus-point win that will leave the two sides level on points.

If that happens, it will come down to tries scored in the two matches between the sides, with Stade holding a 5-3 lead after their Round 1 victory.

Ulster can move to 17 points if they beat Cardiff Blues and score five tries, but that won't be enough to qualify as runners-up.