Preview - Wales v England

Valleys awash with tide of optimism

Cardiff has quietly and efficiently got itself into gear this week. Flags have sprouted up around the city, and pubs have been selling tickets for Saturday almost as fast as the Millennium Stadium's box office.

A TV advertisement featuring a young lad who has somehow got his hands on Neil Jenkins' sock from that day at Wembley in 1999, and is planning to wear it on Saturday is being broadcast with propagating regularity.

While many English people have been looking further ahead to the France game in nine days' time, there is no mistaking that in Wales, the season could begin and end on Saturday.

Red and white tents have sprung up around the glitzy new stadium, which still somehow looks like a huge UFO which crash-landed in the aged city centre.

Welsh rugby was also pretty unsightly a few years ago, but there is nothing irreparably faulty about the Welsh team announced by Mike Ruddock this week.

Wales' team is now reaching full maturity, and after countless disappointments over the past couple of years there is no better opportunity than this year's Six Nations to finally, finally, finally show the rugby world that Wales is a force again, and no better team to show it against than the old enemy.

The vein of proven quality running through the Wales backs cannot be ignored. Gareth Thomas is a shoe-in for practically any team, and is an inspiring leader. Shane Williams has journalists all around the valleys suffering writers' block as they think of new ways to describe his nipping, bobbing, weaving running style. 'Diminutive Dancer' is the best we have seen in the papers this week.

Hal Luscombe is a giant of a wing on the other side to Williams, and in centres Tom Shanklin and Gavin Henson, Ruddock has a neat blend of the latter's flair and kicking skills, and the former's belligerence and handling reliability. Both are proven try-scorers.

At half-back, Stephen Jones, already a fine play-maker for the Scarlets, showed just how much playing amongst spontaneous Frenchmen has rounded off his game in November, and Dwayne Peel has been the Scarlets' outstanding player for most of this season.

Numbers fifteen through nine are no problem. At eight ... this is where Wales' problems might start. Michael Owen is a fine player, as are Martyn Williams and Dafydd Jones. None of them, however come close to the talismanic Colin Charvis, whose presence will be desperately missed. It will be interesting to see just how well these three hold up without him.

In the second row, Brent Cockbain and Robert Sidoli are both athletic enough, but it is doubtful whether either has the physical presence of their counterparts in the white shirts.

And in the front row, the hirsute Adam Jones is not strong enough to take on Graham Rowntree. Gethin Jenkins might get off lightly against Julian White, should Ruddock's 'Eddie Jones-ical' ploy of warning referee Steve Walsh about White's scrummaging technique work. Otherwise Jenkins is also in trouble. Mefin Davies is strong enough to take on Steve Thompson on his own, but between the weaker props, he has little chance.

England have the measure of Wales up front. Rowntree and White will prop any hooker to superiority. Borthwick and Kay are a tried and tested duo of extensive experience, who will only suffer if Thompson has another attack of the yips with his line-out throwing.

Numbers one through five are no problem for the world champs. At six ... this is where England's problems might start. Lewis Moody's late withdrawal is a heavy blow for the visitors - he is no Richard Hill, but is industrious and pacy. His replacement, Chris Jones, is talented but is no Lewis Moody.

Joe Worsley is a fine player but is not the superlative one Lawrence Dallaglio was, and was exposed for being suspect in contact situations both by Leicester this season and New Zealand in June. Andy Hazell, solid as he is, is no Neil Back either.

Matt Dawson is unquestionably one of the world's best, but should the trio behind him break down, too much may be asked of him. Charlie Hodgson is not yet reliable enough to be, well, relied upon to lead a backline. Jamie Noon is a good player, but again, is overshadowed by his predecessor.

Matthew Tait looked too nervous at the press conference on Tuesday to make you believe that he will dance through the Welsh defence. He is the future, but needs time, just as Jonny did.

Robinson, Lewsey and Cueto are all world-class, but if the Hodgson-Noon-Tait axis fails, they may not see the ball much.

So they key to this match is in the tight. England have the edge in the scrum, but it is pretty even in the loose. Both teams have enough potential firepower out wide to use patiently built-up ball to the full, as well as to produce moments of match-turning magic.

An awful lot rests upon the throwing arm of Steve Thompson. If he has a bad day, the athletic Sidoli and Cockbain will pluck the stray balls, and England will be down a lot of possession, while Wales will be able to free their dangerous backs. If Thompson is on his game, England have enough of a forward game to simply roll Wales over without really needing to spin the ball at all.

Sadly for Wales, Thompson has been more consistent this season. England showed in the second half of November's match against Australia just how effective their tight game can be. It probably won't be the prettiest victory, but it should be an English one.

Players to watch:

Wales: Scarlets scrum-half Dwayne Peel has had a superb season. He was the star of the show against South Africa in November, as well as on numerous occasions for his region. Solid of pass and fleet of foot, his service to Stephen Jones is the pivot for the back-line upon which all Welsh hopes can rest. Don't count on him being quiet either, he admitted this week that he had been working on his aggro and lip so he could combat the likes of Dawson and Gregan!

England: Wales would forget Mark Cueto for the likes of Lewsey and Robinson at their peril. Cueto cemented his place in the team with his try against South Africa in November, where the communication and awareness he displayed indicated just how well he has slotted into the team. He may not have the mazy running of Lewsey or the blink-and-he's-gone acceleration of Robinson, but Cueto is an accomplished player in every facet of wing play.

Head-to-head: Rob Sidoli (Wales) v Danny Grewcock (England): So many to choose. How will youngster Tait cope head-to-head with the experienced and beefy Shanklin? Will Jones run rings around Hodgson or vice versa? But the most interesting match-up is in the second row. Rob Sidoli, recalled to the side after three months of slogging and chivvying from Mike Ruddock, squares up to Danny Grewcock, one of England's strongest locks and straight out of the Johnson mould. Sidoli has the edge in athleticism, Grewcock in terms of strength. Sidoli is one of the most placid forwards in the game, but Grewcock... It is a confrontation that will go a fair way to deciding the game.

Recent results:

2004: England won 31-21 in London (Twickenham)
2003: England won 28-17 Brisbane, Australia (RWC)
2003: England won 43-9 in Cardiff (RWC warm-up)
2003: England won 26-9 in Cardiff (Millennium Stadium)
2002: England won 50-10 in London (Twickenham)
2001: England won 44-15 in Cardiff (Millennium Stadium)
2000: England won 46-12 in London (Twickenham) 
1999: Wales won 31-32 in London (Wembley Stadium)
1998: England won 60-26 in London (Twickenham) 

Prediction: English muscle to dowse dragon fire.
Planet Rugby prediction: England by eight points.
sportingodds.com prediction: England by five points.

The teams:

Wales: 15 Gareth Thomas (Toulouse, captain), 14 Hal Luscombe (Dragons), 13 Tom Shanklin (Blues), 12  Gavin Henson (Ospreys), 11 Shane Williams (Ospreys), 10 Stephen Jones (Clermont Auvergne), 9 Dwayne Peel (Scarlets), 8 Michael Owen (Dragons), 7 Martyn Williams (Blues), 6 Dafydd Jones (Scarlets), 5 Rob Sidoli (Blues), 4 Brent Cockbain (Ospreys), 3 Adam Jones (Ospreys), 2 Mefin Davies (Gloucester), 1 Gethin Jenkins (Blues).
Replacements: 16 Robin McBryde (Scarlets), 17 John Yapp (Blues), 18 Jonathan Thomas (Ospreys), 19 Ryan Jones (Ospreys), 20 Gareth Cooper (Dragons), 21 Ceri Sweeney (Dragons, 22 Kevin Morgan (Dragons).

England: 15 Jason Robinson (Sale Sharks) (captain), 14 Mark Cueto (Sale Sharks), 13 Mathew Tait (Newcastle), 12 Jamie Noon (Newcastle), 11 Josh Lewsey (Wasps), 10 Charlie Hodgson (Sale Sharks), 9 Matt Dawson (Wasps), 8 Joe Worsley (Wasps), 7 Andy Hazell (Gloucester), 6 Chris Jones (Sale Sharks), 5 Danny Grewcock (Bath), 4 Ben Kay (Leicester), 3 Julian White (Leicester), 2 Steve Thompson (Northampton), 1 Graham Rowntree (Leicester).
Replacements: 16 Andy Titterrell (Sale Sharks), 17 Phil Vickery (Gloucester), 18 Steve Borthwick (Bath), 19 James Forrester (Gloucester), 20 Harry Ellis (Leicester), 21 Olly Barkley (Bath), 22 Ben Cohen (Northampton).

Date: Saturday, February 5
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 17:30 GMT
Weather: Some light showers - max 7°C, min 4°C. Roof will be closed.
Referee: Steve Walsh (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Alain Rolland (Ireland), Rob Dickson (Scotland)
Assessor: Jim Irvine (Ireland)
Television match official: David Changleng (Scotland)

By Danny Stephens in Cardiff