Preview - Australia v New Zealand

All Blacks look for early Tri-Nations conclusion

The All Blacks return to the scene of their thumping 50-21 victory last year with another Tri-Nations championship well within their sights - a bonus-point victory would leave them with an unassailable lead in the tournament.

They have good reason to be confident after two home victories over Australia and South Africa in which they enjoyed over 70 percent of the possession in each game.

With the weather forecasts for Sydney showing calm clear skies, the visitors will have ample opportunity to convert this possession into points, and to show just how much Graham Henry's 'back-to-basics' policy has improved the All Blacks since the 2003 Rugby World Cup.

It has been business as usual in both camps in the build-up, both teams talking up their chances and publicly laying to rest any lingering unease caused by mistakes and/or problems in the first round of games.

All Black fly-half Carlos Spencer has defended his team's 'flat attack' strategy which has only produced two tries in two tests despite the wealth of possession, while Wallaby prop Al Baxter has lauded the Aussie tight five's improvement since the Wellington mud bath three weeks ago.

The coaches - as is their wont - have also been active in the press, agreeing with each other that this game will almost certainly decide the outcome of the tournament, despite both teams still facing the trip across to South Africa.

Tactical discussion in the NZ camp has centred on whether Marshall and Spencer can finally unleash the world's most potent backline despite the limitations of the flat attacking position. Both players, Marshall in particular, have laid the blame for the lack of incision in the last two games at the feet of the weather (against Australia), and an over-liberal interpretation of the offside line (against the Boks), and both have stated their belief in the new system working.

However, the inclusion of Andrew Mehrtens on the bench is a sign that Henry may lose patience with Spencer's inability to distribute effectively under pressure, should the beefy pack not dominate as completely as planned. Marshall will also be under more pressure than he was in Wellington now that Georges Gregan and Smith will be breathing down his neck, and Spencer does not cope well with untidy ball.

Graham Henry also hinted that Australia's choice of the scrapping abilities of Smith and Phil Waugh over the jumping talents of John Roe or Radike Samo would weaken the Wallaby line-out, which would further explain the inclusion of the three taller men in his starting team.

The Wallabies have not focused on any perceived weakness in the All Black team, instead focusing on their own shortcomings.

Prop Al Baxter spoke at length in the Australian press this week about the improvement shown against the Springboks, both personally and by the pack as a unit. But both Baxter and Eddie Jones are aware of the standard required to match the All Black pack.

Jones said that his tight five had experience a week of 'constant reminders' about their responsibilities and levels of concentration required.

However, he did not see the line-out as a weakness in his team's set-up, congratulating the efforts of Sharpe and Harrison against the South Africans despite their lack of a third jumper.

There has also been speculation on the possible use of the high punt to Lote Tuqiri in attacking situations, a move which was so effective last week, and an area where Joe Rokocoko is suspect in defence. Tuqiri may well be given license to roam both wings looking for ball.

The outcome of the match will hinge upon how much freedom the Australian scavengers are given to disrupt the New Zealand possession by referee Jonathan Kaplan. The tighter his perception of the offside line, the more room Spencer and Marshall will have to free up their backs in the benign conditions.

But if the Wallabies are given room to take a step up in defence, the contest will be much more evenly fought, and the possibility of a Wallaby victory cannot be ignored.

Either way, the conditions should ensure a belter of a game.

Players to watch:

For New Zealand: The return of Jono Gibbes will be a welcome fillip to the All Blacks, both for his added height in the line-out and the powerful runs going forward.

For Australia: Big Wallaby wing Lote Tuqiri had a terrific game against the Springboks, frequently coming off his wing to an inside channel and proving very difficult to stop. Watch for his runs and his appearances under the bomb.

Head to head: George Gregan (Australia) v Justin Marshall (New Zealand): Two of the world's best and most experienced scrum-halves lock horns again. Marshall is likely to enjoy most of the possession, so watch for Gregan sniping and trying to disrupt Marshall's ball distribution. If Marshall cannot get the ball to Spencer cleanly, the All Blacks will struggle. Watch too for Marshall making breaks of his own. Gregan meanwhile must ensure that whatever possession Australia get is speedily delivered to Larkham. Don't forget the earplugs either, as neither is known for silent contemplation of breakdown situations.

Recent results:

In 2004: New Zealand won 16-7 in Wellington
In 2003: Australia won 22-10 in Sydney (RWC)
In 2003: New Zealand won 21-17 in Auckland
In 2003: New Zealand won 50-21 in Sydney 
In 2002: Australia won 16-14 in Sydney
In 2002: New Zealand won 12-6 in Christchurch
In 2001: Australia won 29-26 in Sydney
In 2001: Australia won 23-15 in Dunedin
In 2000: Australia won 24-23 in Wellington
In 2000: New Zealand won 39-35 in Sydney

Prediction: The dry conditions will ensure that there will not be a repeat of the handling errors of three weeks ago - and 80,000 baying Australians will make a difference. If Matt Giteau remembers to pack his kicking boots, Australia will win by a whisker.
Planet Rugby prediction: Australia by 3 points.
sportingodds.com prediction: New Zealand by 3 points.

The teams:

Australia: 15 Chris Latham, 14 Clyde Rathbone, 13 Stirling Mortlock, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Stephen Larkham, 9 George Gregan (captain), 8 David Lyons, 7 Phil Waugh, 6 George Smith, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Justin Harrison, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Brendan Cannon, 1 Bill Young.
Replacements: 16 Jeremy Paul, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Daniel Vickerman, 19 John Roe, 20 Chris Whitaker, 21 Matthew Burke, 22 Wendell Sailor.

All Blacks: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Doug Howlett, 13 Tana Umaga (captain), 12 Daniel Carter, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Carlos Spencer, 9 Justin Marshall, 8 Xavier Rush, 7 Marty Holah, 6 Jono Gibbes, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Chris Jack, 3 Carl Hayman, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Kees Meeuws.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Greg Somerville, 18 Simon Maling/Mose Tuiali'i, 19 Craig Newby, 20 Byron Kelleher, 21 Andrew Mehrtens, 22 Sam Tuitupou.

Date: Saturday, August 7
Kick-off: 20.00 local time (10.00 GMT)
Venue: Telstra Stadium, Sydney
Conditions: Clear/dry - max 16°C min, 6°C
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Touch Judges: Chris White (England), Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assessor: David Kerr (Scotland)
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

By Danny Stephens